- Global trade volatility and fluctuating tariffs are driving companies to rely on airfreight for speed, flexibility, and supply chain resilience, even for partial or emergency shipments.
- Businesses are adopting proactive strategies, tracking capacity, passenger travel, and commodity trends to secure space, manage costs, and maintain operations amid uncertainty.
- Airfreight is shifting from a premium service to a core supply-chain pillar, with industrial and time-critical cargo increasingly dominating lanes, while customs and documentation require real-time management.
Global trade has become as unpredictable as the weather, keeping everyone along the supply chain in suspense about the next round of tariff announcements. Duty rates could be 10 percent at the moment of purchase, only to jump to 60 percent at the point of delivery weeks later, leaving importers scrambling to protect margins. This volatility has transformed airfreight from a speciality into a safeguard against unpredictable trade shake-ups.
After months of uncertainty, suppliers and shippers are no longer willing to gamble on long lead times. Inventories that once travelled by ocean are now moving by air, often within hours or days of purchase. Even partial container loads, which have been historically cost-inefficient to fly, are being diverted to aircraft simply to secure availability. Adding to the pressure are border delays at Canada and Mexico, which are currently stretching from a few hours to multiple days.
For time-critical industries, the calculus is even sharper. Technical clients moving heavy drilling equipment, for example, cannot afford operational downtime. Many are choosing smaller regional airports where customs clearance can be secured quickly, further underscoring the benefits of airfreight. Time is money, and today, companies must be willing to pay for speed.
How importers are responding to shaky ground on global trade
Companies are adopting markedly different approaches to this chaotic environment. Proactive players are watching airfreight quotes closely, tracking shifts in bellyhold capacity, and anticipating how changes in passenger travel impact cargo opportunities. For instance, a reduction in passenger flights on a route from Toronto to Florida would also sharply cut available cargo capacity. By contrast, other once-secondary routes are emerging as strategic lifelines. Those who spot trends early can lock in space and better rates.
Reactive players, however, find themselves cornered. When a supplier overseas can’t deliver due to shortages in steel, critical minerals, or other tariff-sensitive materials, manufacturers are forced to pivot to emergency shipments. These “fire-drill” movements are expensive and disruptive, but they are also necessary in a supply chain scenario where bare shelves and production stoppages cause greater long-term harm.
To stay ahead, the most proactive supply chain experts are looking to operational indicators rather than macroeconomic updates. Airfreight utilisation rates, passenger travel trends, and even early signals in commodity pricing are emerging as leading indicators of where capacity and costs will land. For those able to read the data and act decisively, the uncertainty of tariffs becomes more manageable.
Scenarios and shifting cargo mix
Looking ahead, tariff outcomes over the coming months could yield vastly different results for airfreight. Three scenarios stand out:
Tariffs are rolled back: If tariffs are rolled back, volumes could surge overnight. Many companies have already embedded tariff costs into production schedules, so a sudden removal would prompt buyers to return to previous suppliers. The result is a scramble for capacity as orders pile up, testing the speed and capability of both carriers and forwarders to adapt.
Tariffs remain steady: If tariffs remain steady, the status quo continues. There is a balancing act of creative sourcing, cross-border workarounds, and strategic use of airfreight to avoid empty shelves. While tariffs haven’t fully filtered through to consumers, the clock is most certainly ticking. For retailers and manufacturers alike, the ability to lean on airfreight in moments of scarcity could mean the difference between lost sales and preserved loyalty.
Tariffs increase sharply: If tariffs increase sharply, disruptions will be even more profound. Businesses will be forced to look for new trade partners; for example, Canada turning toward the EU and UK, or opening up air corridors that were previously marginal. However you slice it, capacity will be stretched thin, and importers will face a painful quandary: pay higher tariffs, absorb airfreight premiums, or risk production downtime. In the worst cases, limited access to raw materials could lead to layoffs or factory shutdowns.
Overlaying these scenarios is another critical shift: the elimination of the de minimis exemption for cross-border e-commerce. Lower-value parcels, once the bedrock of fast international air shipping, are already in decline. This will free up capacity, but the mix of cargo will change. Industrial shipments, including mining equipment, drilling parts, and specialised components, are moving to the forefront. Airfreight lanes once dominated by consumer electronics or household goods may soon see heavier, mission-critical cargo, reshaping not just the market but also the infrastructure needed to support it.
The integration of airfreight into the supply chain
What was once considered a premium service is rapidly becoming a core supply-chain pillar. Shippers, forwarders, and carriers are no longer treating airfreight as a specialised tool; instead, they see it as an integral part of their global supply chain strategy.
The opportunity to develop a more agile supply chain is clear, with broader adoption and faster responsiveness that allows businesses to weather the shock of tariffs and rising geopolitical tensions. Companies that have never used airfreight before could now integrate it into their standard logistics playbook. As deadlines approach and leave disruption in their wake—the August tariff deadline, for example, or the next regulatory release in October—more businesses are expected to take advantage of airfreight to hedge against hits to their bottom line.
Customs and documentation requirements create another layer of risk. Where documentation was previously prepared over weeks of ocean transit, it will now need to be completed in real-time.
A missed form or misclassified product can cause pallets to sit idle in storage, racking up storage fees and causing capacity bottlenecks that threaten the supply chain for sensitive goods, including pharmaceuticals and temperature-controlled industrial products.
Still, the trajectory of airfreight in this new global economic environment is unmistakable. Airfreight is moving from the periphery to the centre of international trade logistics. For companies caught in tariff crosswinds, speed and certainty have become a focal point of their supply chain strategy. Air cargo offers both, and those who embrace it early will be best positioned to stay competitive in a trading environment where unpredictability remains the only constant.
