The world of global trade has always been defined by volatility—navigating economic crises, geopolitical shifts, and sudden policy changes. Over the past decade, the industry has faced unprecedented disruptions, from the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on supply chains to the potential resurgence of tariffs under a second Trump administration. 

Yet, trade persists. Like a river carving new paths around obstacles, it continues to evolve, forming new connections and opportunities. 

“Trade always finds a way,”  DHL Express Europe CEO Mike Barra stated at the DHL Global Trade Briefing.

“Despite disruptions and uncertainty, we are not seeing a retreat from globalisation. Instead, we are seeing it transform.”

The DHL Trade Atlas, a comprehensive data-driven analysis of trade patterns, reveals that global trade is projected to grow at 3.1 percent annually from 2024 to 2029, a rate that surpasses the previous decade’s growth. Even in the face of economic and political uncertainty, trade is expected to expand across multiple regions, creating new opportunities for logistics providers, freight forwarders, and air cargo operators.

One of the most notable findings from the DHL Trade Atlas is that global trade is set to accelerate. The projected 3.1 percent annual trade volume increase from 2024 to 2029 represents a significant improvement over the 2 percent annual growth recorded between 2019 and 2024, a period heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability.

“If we only see limited or modest increases in trade barriers, the outlook is actually quite favourable,” said NYU Professor Steven Altman.

“Trade growth is expected to keep pace with or even exceed GDP growth in many regions.”

Several factors are driving this growth, including:

• The ongoing expansion of e-commerce, led to increased demand for international logistics solutions

• The diversification of supply chains away from China and into emerging markets such as Vietnam and India

• Nearshoring and reshoring trends, particularly in Europe and North America

• Rising foreign direct investment (FDI) in key trade corridors

• High demand for technology, electric vehicles, and pharmaceuticals

This signals a continued need for efficient global freight solutions for the air cargo industry, particularly for time-sensitive, high-value goods such as electronics, healthcare products, and consumer goods.

Despite the slower economic expansion, Europe is expected to contribute significantly to global trade growth, with the region forecasted to account for 30 percent of global trade expansion by 2029.

“Europe’s trade volume growth rate was only 1 percent in the past five years, but it is forecast to rise to 2.7 percent over the next five years,” Altman said. “While this remains slightly below the global average, it represents a positive shift for the region.”

Among the key European trade performers:

• Germany is projected to be among the top five trade growth 

leaders globally by absolute volume.

• Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are expected to see the highest trade growth rates in Europe.

• Italy’s luxury and automotive exports remain strong, though 

potential tariffs on European goods could present challenges.

• Spain is emerging as a crucial gateway for trade between 

Europe and Latin America, leveraging Madrid’s strong

intercontinental connections.

“We are seeing strong inbound trade from Asia into Europe, and at the same time, outbound flows from Europe to Latin America are accelerating,” said Barra.

The DHL Trade Atlas identifies key emerging markets that are expected to drive global trade growth over the next five years.

The report highlights that, from 2019 to 2024, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, and Ireland were among the fastest-growing trade hubs globally. Looking ahead, from 2024 to 2029, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are projected to lead in both trade speed and scale.

“Vietnam and India, in particular, are attracting significant manufacturing investment as companies diversify supply chains away from China,” said Altman.

In addition to Asia, the Middle East and Africa are also poised for substantial trade expansion.

• The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to increase its annual trade growth from 2.9 percent to 3.9 percent.

• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see the largest acceleration globally, with trade growth rising from 0.8 percent to 5.3 percent annually.

Several key sectors are driving this expansion, including:

• Automotive and electric vehicle battery production in Europe

• e-commerce and retail logistics in Asia and the MENA region

• Pharmaceutical and healthcare exports in the Middle East and Africa

• Renewable energy and green technology investment across Africa

For cargo airlines and logistics providers, these regions present significant opportunities for expansion and strategic investment.

Trade policy uncertainty

One of the key concerns raised during the briefing was the potential impact of US trade policy changes, particularly if former President Donald Trump returns to office.

“If the proposed US tariff increases are fully implemented and retaliation occurs, global trade volumes could decline by 7 to 10 percent,” Altman explained.

While this would slow trade growth, it would not reverse the overall trajectory.

Key risks include:

• Potential 200 percent US tariffs on European alcoholic 

beverages, which could extend to other European goods

• 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports, which could further shift supply chains to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America

• A continued reduction in trade between 

geopolitical rivals, though this trend has not yet led to full trade fragmentation.

Despite these risks, Altman noted that companies are preparing for different trade scenarios to ensure continued growth.

The globalisation debate

Despite increasing discussions around nearshoring and regionalisation, DHL’s data indicates that global trade distances are actually increasing rather than shrinking:

• The average distance for global trade shipments reached 5,000 kilometres in 2024, the highest on record.

• The share of trade occurring within regional blocs has declined to 51 percent, suggesting that cross-continental trade remains strong.

• The EU’s trade relationship with the U.S. is strengthening, while imports from China remain stable.

The DHL Global Trade Briefing delivered an optimistic outlook for trade growth despite ongoing policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

For the air cargo industry, the key takeaways include:

• Asia, the Middle East, and Africa will be the primary drivers of trade growth.

• e-commerce and express cargo will continue to expand, creating strong demand for international freight services.

• Europe’s trade resurgence presents opportunities for interconti nental air cargo expansion.

• New trade policies and tariffs will create challenges, but also new opportunities for logistics providers.

As global trade adapts to evolving market conditions, air cargo will remain at the forefront of facilitating efficient, high-speed logistics solutions for the next phase of globalisation.