For much of the past decade, air cargo has been shaped by market forces: demand cycles, fuel prices, fleet decisions, and shocks such as the pandemic. As the industry enters 2026, however, a different influence is moving to the foreground. Regulation—particularly in Europe—is beginning to reshape not just costs, but the very geography of air cargo flows.
Two policy changes stand out: the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which takes effect in January 2026, and the introduction of customs duties on low-value e-commerce shipments from mid-year. Together, they signal a shift toward a more interventionist trade environment with significant implications for air freight.
CBAM: Climate policy meets global trade
CBAM is designed to level the playing field between EU producers and foreign manufacturers by applying a carbon cost to imports of emissions-intensive goods, including steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, and hydrogen. While these commodities are not typically associated with air cargo, their broader supply chains are.
Higher compliance costs and administrative complexity are expected to affect upstream and downstream logistics decisions. Components, spare parts, samples, and time-critical shipments linked to CBAM-covered industries may face delays or modal shifts as exporters reassess the economics of serving the European market.
For exporters in major manufacturing hubs such as China, India, and Brazil, CBAM adds a new layer of friction at a time when global trade growth is already slowing. The risk is not an immediate collapse in volumes, but a gradual redirection of trade toward markets with fewer regulatory hurdles.
e-commerce duties target volume, not value
A more direct impact on air cargo volumes will come from the EU’s decision to introduce a flat customs duty on low-value consignments—those below EUR 150—supplied directly to consumers via e-commerce platforms. From July 2026, shipments that were previously exempt will face a per-package charge.
The policy is aimed at addressing competitive imbalances and customs enforcement challenges, but its logistics consequences are significant. Cross-border e-commerce has been one of the fastest-growing drivers of air cargo demand, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes. Any measure that dampens this flow is likely to reduce total tonnage, even if it has a limited effect on revenue.
For air cargo networks, the change could ease some capacity pressure on congested lanes while accelerating a shift toward consolidation, fulfillment within the EU, or alternative markets outside Europe.
Europe risks losing relative gravity
These regulatory moves come at a delicate moment for Europe. Manufacturing activity remains weak, export orders are soft, and air cargo demand has already shown signs of contraction on key transatlantic routes. Adding cost and complexity to imports may further erode Europe’s relative attractiveness as a destination for marginal trade flows.
By contrast, regions such as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa are moving in the opposite direction. Investments in cargo infrastructure, trade facilitation agreements, and logistics hubs are strengthening their positions as growth centers. Middle Eastern hubs, in particular, are benefiting from their role as neutral transshipment points connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The risk for Europe is not isolation, but gradual sidelining—as trade flows become more selective and exporters prioritize markets with fewer regulatory frictions.
Trade lanes, not just volumes are shifting
The combined effect of CBAM, e-commerce duties, and existing trade tensions is likely to reshape trade lanes rather than simply reduce volumes. Some flows may bypass Europe altogether, while others may be rerouted through alternative hubs or served via different fulfillment models.
For air cargo, this means network complexity will increase. Airlines and forwarders may see softer demand on some traditional lanes but tighter conditions on others as capacity is redeployed and trade patterns adjust.
In this environment, averages will become even less meaningful. Growth or decline will be determined at the corridor level, influenced as much by policy decisions as by economic fundamentals.
A new era of policy-drive cargo
The emerging picture for 2026 is one in which regulation plays a far more active role in shaping air cargo markets. Climate policy, customs reform, and geopolitical considerations are no longer background factors; they are core drivers of network design and trade strategy.
For shippers and logistics providers, adapting will require more than cost management. It will demand deeper regulatory awareness, greater flexibility in routing, and a willingness to rethink market priorities.
The redrawing of air cargo trade lanes may not be dramatic or immediate, but it is already underway—and those who fail to account for policy risk may find themselves flying into headwinds that have little to do with demand or capacity.
