A blossoming economic relationship between China and Latin America could have a profound impact on global trade dynamics, and the air cargo industry at large. As both regions work around US tariffs and strengthen their ties through initiatives like the Belt and Road, the resulting surge in trade has led to a few notable shifts in airfreight patterns, presenting both opportunities and obstacles for stakeholders.
Surging demand
In recent years, the air cargo corridor between China and Latin America has experienced significant growth. Spot rates from China to Latin America have more than doubled from May 2019 to May of last year, with the China-Brazil route seeing rates reach upwards of US$6.46 per kilogramme — US$1.60 per kilogramme higher than rates to the US. This surge is largely driven by the exponential rise of e-commerce juggernauts such as Temu, Shein, and AliExpress, which have expanded rapidly, sending packages directly from warehouses in China to countries like Brazil and Mexico.
With high demand for low-cost consumer goods, electronics, and apparel, Latin America has made itself an attractive destination for Chinese exporters. This quick shift in consumer behaviour, particularly in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, has led to an uptick in the volume of small parcels moving across the Pacific. These goods typically find their way onto freighters and passenger aircraft in large numbers, further increasing air cargo traffic on the China-Latin America routes.
Infrastructure and strategic investments
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has extended its reach to Latin America, leading to some substantial infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing trade connectivity. A notable example is the development of the Chancay megaport in Peru, a US$3.6 billion deep-sea terminal inaugurated in late 2024. This port is expected to revolutionise trade between Latin America and Asia by providing a direct maritime link, potentially reducing reliance on traditional routes and impacting air cargo volumes.
The growing port network is not only facilitating trade flow via ocean, it’s also stimulating demand for air cargo to handle high-priority or time-sensitive shipments. With more efficient port-to-air connections, logistics providers are increasingly looking to optimise their supply chains by combining sea and airfreight. The direct link provided by the Chancay port will most likely also see an uptick in air cargo demand in conjunction with rising exports and imports.
Regions like Henan in China are emerging as logistics hubs connecting Chinese and Latin American markets. The Zhengzhou-Luxembourg Air Silk Road, for instance, has facilitated increased cargo flights, with Zhengzhou Airport operating 24 international cargo airlines and 38 international cargo routes as of late last year.
These developments have led to stronger air cargo connectivity across major Latin American cities like São Paulo, Mexico City, and Buenos Aires, where the capacity to handle high volumes of small parcel e-commerce shipments has increased substantially.
Capacity and logistics challenges
Despite the growth in demand, the air cargo capacity between China and Latin America faces a few hurdles. The vast distances mean multi-stop flights via North America, Europe, or the Middle East, leading to extensive transit times and increased costs. This adds layers of complexity for carriers, as optimising routes and minimising layovers become essential to staying competitive.
The imbalance in trade volumes, where outbound flights from China are often more full than return legs, complicates capacity planning and pricing strategies. Airlines are usually adjusting their services to better balance these flows, which adds further challenges.
The introduction of direct passenger flights, such as the 16-hour journey from Shenzhen to Mexico City, marks progress but also highlights the aforementioned complexities. While direct flights are efficient, they don’t eliminate the inherent difficulty of balancing the flow of goods.
A tariff-tinged turning point
As US–China trade tensions heat up, the growing air cargo bridge between China and Latin America could take on new strategic importance. With Washington increasing tariffs on a range of Chinese goods almost daily, manufacturers and logistics providers are realigning global supply chains to avoid getting caught in the middle as much as possible.
Latin America is emerging not only as an alternative consumer base, but also as a critical transshipment and manufacturing partner. In this context, what began as a seasonal or e-commerce-driven uptick in regional air cargo demand may evolve into something more permanent: a regularised, strategic trade lane.
Chinese firms increasingly see Latin American countries as destinations where goods can be assembled or warehoused prior to distribution, whether to local markets or back into tariff-heavy regions like the US This diversification strategy adds pressure to stabilise routes, optimise airfreight networks, and lock in long-term agreements with regional airports and carriers.
For the air cargo industry, this all means more scheduled flights, stronger infrastructure investment, and higher expectations around service reliability between Asia and Latin America. So, as geopolitical rifts expand, the skies over the Pacific and across the Andes are likely to become even busier, and more strategically important, than ever before.
