The trade conflict between the United States and its global trading partners has profoundly impacted the airfreight industry, bringing both volatility and disruption, sparking surges in shipments as companies rush to avoid tariffs, but these bursts of activity often mask deeper, longer-term problems.
“While some periods of tariff escalation have spurred short-term surges in shipments as shippers rush to beat deadlines, the longer-term effect has been demand suppression, particularly for e-commerce shipments from Asia,” Brandon Fried, executive director of the Airforwarders Association, explained. “These unpredictable trade shifts strain supply chain planning and have led to reduced volumes for airfreight forwarders, particularly those handling low-value consumer goods.
“US air cargo trade with Asia may become more selective, with high-value or time-sensitive goods continuing to move by air, while some volume shifts to ocean due to rising costs and regulatory hurdles. However, trade with Europe is likely to remain more stable, as it’s underpinned by mature economic relationships and fewer political flashpoints. We anticipate growing interest in nearshoring and diversifying supply sources, which could shift traffic patterns.”
Advocacy and engagement
As regulatory uncertainties continue to shape the airfreight landscape, the AFA is at the forefront of lobbying efforts aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of policy changes. One of the most pressing issues, according to Fried, is the potential removal of de minimis exemptions for e-commerce shipments.
“We’ve voiced strong concern over the impact of eliminating de minimis exemptions and imposing excessive tariffs on e-commerce shipments,” he noted. “We continue to educate policymakers on how these measures will harm US consumers, reduce demand for air cargo services, and damage the competitiveness of American forwarders and airlines.”
Security concerns and stability
While tariff and trade concerns dominate the policy landscape, security remains a perennial challenge for airfreight forwarders. A critical concern for members of the AFA is the lack of permanent leadership at the Transportation Security Administration (TSA).
“The White House has yet to nominate a new TSA administrator, creating uncertainty at a time when our industry needs stability and vision. Without consistent leadership, long-overdue reforms to outdated or duplicative cargo security regulations remain stalled,” Fried declared.
“While we fully support strong security protocols, many current rules no longer reflect the realities of modern logistics and instead increase costs without enhancing safety. The Airforwarders Association continues to work closely with TSA staff and congressional oversight committees, urging action on regulatory updates that will improve efficiency while maintaining security standards.”
Geopolitical tensions ripple through the industry
Geopolitical instability has had a significant impact on North American air cargo volumes and trade routes, particularly with the onset of conflicts in eastern Europe and escalating tensions in the Red Sea. These disruptions have forced airfreight carriers to reroute shipments, increasing transit times and costs.
“Conflicts in eastern Europe and tensions in the Red Sea have prompted rerouting of air cargo flows, leading to longer transit times and increased costs,” Fried explained. “Additionally, supply chain instability has reduced demand in certain sectors, while others—like defence-related logistics—have experienced a spike. The redirection of routes also puts added pressure on major US gateway airports and infrastructure.”
The push for integrated solutions
As the demand for more sophisticated supply chain management grows, integrated logistics solutions are becoming an increasingly important offering for airfreight forwarders, with a shift in focus towards end-to-end visibility and control—particularly in the e-commerce sector.
“Customers expect a seamless experience from factory to final delivery, and many forwarders are responding by offering integrated solutions that combine warehousing, fulfilment, tech platforms, and transportation. We encourage innovation in this space and highlight best practices among our members,” Fried outlined. “We’re encouraging members to adopt digital tools that streamline documentation, optimise routing, and reduce idle time—especially around congested airports. Collaboration with ground handlers, investment in training, and flexible workforce strategies are also key. In addition, we continue to press for infrastructure improvements and better coordination at major air cargo hubs to address inefficiencies.”
Staying competitive
As ocean freight continues to grow as a low-cost alternative to airfreight, airforwarders are focusing on the unique advantages that airfreight offers, particularly in terms of speed, reliability, and agility.
“Ocean freight may be cheaper and offered by our members, but it cannot match the time-critical advantages of air,” Fried explained. “Our focus is on promoting the unique value of airfreight—speed, reliability, and agility—especially for high-value and time-sensitive shipments. We also help members diversify their services and customer bases to remain competitive.
“Despite current headwinds, we’re seeing growth in trade lanes connecting the US with Southeast Asia and Latin America, particularly in the healthcare, technology, and e-commerce sectors. As supply chains diversify away from China, emerging economies like Vietnam, India, and Mexico present strong opportunities for airfreight growth.”
