When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on China and other trading partners back in April, the effects were felt far beyond political circles and economic forecasts. The shockwaves of that decision are still rippling through global supply chains—and while the headlines have mostly focused on ocean container shipping, the airfreight industry is facing its own set of challenges and recalibrations.

Knock-on effect

The immediate consequence of the tariffs was a sharp drop in ocean container demand from China to the United States. In response, carriers began reassigning capacity from Transpacific lanes to alternative routes, including North Europe and South America East Coast. This reshuffling created widespread market turbulence, influencing cargo flows and airfreight rates across the globe.

Then came the 90-day tariff relief window in mid-May. Shippers rushed to take advantage of the temporary reprieve, flooding US-bound routes with front-loaded cargo. The result? A sudden, sharp spike in spot rates—up 75 percent into the US West Coast and 58 percent into the East Coast. Carriers rushed to reinstate capacity to meet the demand, but the pendulum quickly swung too far. By late June, spot rates had plummeted, falling 58 percent into the West Coast and 35 percent into the East Coast.

Though airfreight wasn’t the primary focus of these fluctuations, the aftershocks were unavoidable. With space and schedules in flux, air cargo operators have had to stay agile, pivoting to fill urgent capacity gaps or avoid lanes that suddenly lost profitability. The unpredictability of ocean freight created both opportunities and headaches for airfreight stakeholders trying to price, plan, and promise delivery timelines.

Global rebalancing

As ocean carriers diverted capacity to more lucrative lanes, the effects spread to other regions—and airfreight was caught in the crosscurrents. On the Far East to South America East Coast (SAEC) route, rates soared over 260 percent between May and July. The spike came at a time of record-breaking demand just as capacity was drained from the route to serve the US trades. While ocean freight bore the brunt of the increase, airfreight providers also saw volumes shift, with some shippers opting for air transport to bypass congested or under-capacitated ocean alternatives.

But the celebration was short-lived. As rates began to crash on US routes, carriers circled back to SAEC to chase higher returns—flooding the market and driving down prices once again. For airfreight, this ebb and flow can mean sudden surges in demand one week and excess capacity the next.

The North Europe trade, too, became a hotspot. Here, a combination of redeployed capacity, labor disputes, and weather-related congestion created a perfect storm. Spot rates from the Far East rose 78 percent between May and July. Though the cause was partly ocean-focused, the consequences were deeply felt by freight forwarders and air cargo providers, as delays and disruptions forced rethinking of modal splits, contingency planning, and last-mile logistics across Europe.

What comes next?

If there’s one certainty left in the market, it’s this: volatility is here to stay. Airfreight players must now navigate a world where global political decisions ripple unpredictably across trade lanes, leading to fast-moving peaks and valleys in both rates and demand.

In the US and South America East Coast markets, downward pressure on rates is expected to continue throughout the rest of 2025. Without another shock—tariff or otherwise—carriers will need to carefully manage capacity to prevent overcorrection. For air cargo, this may mean renewed competition from ocean freight as rates fall and reliability improves.

North Europe presents a different story. Persistent congestion is expected to sustain upward pressure on long-term contract rates, making it a market to watch for premium air cargo solutions that can fill urgent gaps or navigate port bottlenecks.

One strategic takeaway for shippers—ocean and air alike—is the growing importance of index-linked contracts. By tying rates to market indices, these agreements offer flexibility without the chaos of continuous renegotiation. In a world shaped by external shocks like tariffs, trade wars, and pandemics, this type of pricing model supports long-term stability and supply chain resilience.

For the airfreight sector, these contracts may provide a more predictable financial framework—helping providers focus on service quality, speed, and reliability rather than reactive rate adjustments.