As tariff deadlines, regulatory rulings, and demand spikes converge, global air cargo markets face an intense and uneven June.
Asia’s airfreight market is navigating a summer defined by volatility and urgency. With U.S. tariff suspensions set to expire in July and August, exporters across the region are accelerating shipments, attempting to outpace rising costs. The expiration of these 90-day tariff reductions on Chinese-made goods is driving what could be the sharpest demand surge since the post-pandemic rebound—particularly on Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) lanes.
According to C.H. Robinson’s June 2025 Freight Market Update, “Chinese exporters are frontloading shipments” in response to this looming policy shift. Simultaneously, reciprocal tariffs on goods from other countries are also due to lapse on July 9, pushing manufacturers to ramp up production and logistics activity throughout late June.
Complicating matters is the May 28 federal court ruling that challenges the U.S. president’s ability to impose tariffs via national emergency declarations. This decision casts a shadow over the 10% and 20% tariffs still in place, affecting imports from China and dozens of other nations. Although the ruling has been stayed pending appeal, legal uncertainty is driving shippers to act quickly. With court arguments due by June 9 and the potential for the case to reach the Supreme Court, the freight environment remains deeply unpredictable.
The end of the U.S. de minimis rule in May—previously allowing duty-free e-commerce imports under $800—has also had a chilling effect. “Airlines scaled back capacity in May,” the report notes, due to lower volumes from small-parcel shippers. Now, as demand recovers, carriers are “cautiously adding it back,” leading to a delicate supply-demand imbalance. This seesawing availability is expected to drive up rates throughout June, especially for non-priority cargo.
Shippers are advised to book space two to three weeks in advance and, where possible, “explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia” to bypass congestion and reduce cost exposure. Export rates out of India are softening, and space remains widely available for U.S. and EU-bound shipments. Delhi Airport continues to offer the broadest connectivity, with stable flows for pharmaceuticals and perishables.
Europe: Pockets of pressure remain
European airfreight lanes are experiencing rare stability, but it’s a stability that comes with caveats. According to the update, demand is expected to remain “stable through June,” with outbound capacity to Asia and North America largely in balance. However, C.H. Robinson highlights risks bubbling beneath the surface.
Industries with specialized cargo needs—such as pharmaceuticals, aerospace, and chemical sectors—may feel the pinch. “Niche industries may face pockets of rate hikes and transit constraints,” particularly for temperature-controlled or dangerous goods. These cargo types, which require precision handling and specialized containers, are vulnerable to even slight shifts in capacity.
On the Europe–Asia corridor, recent manufacturing pauses during the Dragon Boat Festival have led to modest rate softening. As production resumes, increased lift from Europe is anticipated—especially from Frankfurt, where demand “remains high.” With more belly capacity returning to market, rates may become more competitive, though shippers should remain flexible in routing strategies.
C.H. Robinson’s analysts point out that while “no major tariff or regulatory shifts are expected,” macroeconomic caution and geopolitical instability near Eastern Europe continue to weigh on shipper sentiment. These factors create a fragile planning environment, with shippers reluctant to commit to long-term contracts or large-scale bookings.
Still, the broader European picture shows resilience. The report advises that “shippers stay nimble” and prepared to reroute cargo if bottlenecks emerge—particularly as the summer progresses and demand builds toward Q3. Frankfurt, already a high-demand hub, could become even more congested if Asia-bound traffic accelerates faster than capacity returns.
North America: Inland disruptions add complexity
In North America, airfreight remains constrained as the market contends with sluggish returns from Asia and soft e-commerce volumes. While some coastal gateways are stabilizing, capacity at inland hubs is another story. “Capacity remains constrained due to lagging returns from Asia,” C.H. Robinson’s update notes, particularly on the West Coast, where service restoration is slowly improving.
One key issue is equipment imbalance. Inland exporters are struggling to find the containers they need as reduced backhaul flows have led to shortfalls at rail ramps and secondary hubs. “Monitor equipment availability closely,” the report urges, especially when planning from non-coastal regions. For shippers with time-sensitive cargo, switching to air can offset these inland inefficiencies.
In this context, mode shifting is becoming a critical tactic. With Q3 ocean capacity expected to tighten and customs rules continuing to evolve, many shippers are reassessing their logistics playbooks. “Amid evolving customs rules and continued tariff uncertainty,” the report observes, airfreight is increasingly being used as a hedge against longer-term disruptions.
The June outlook anticipates continued tightness, particularly as quarter-end demand builds and tariff decisions hang in the balance. Non-priority air shipments may face delays or higher rates as June progresses, making forward planning essential. “Shippers should consider shifting urgent shipments to air to stay ahead” of the expected third-quarter crunch.
While e-commerce volumes have not yet returned to early-2024 highs, the trend is slowly reversing. Airlines are beginning to reintroduce capacity, but this will be incremental and uneven—adding another layer of complexity to route planning.
Strategic moves
June is shaping up to be a month where airfreight decisions have outsized consequences. Across all major regions, a combination of legal, economic, and logistical pressures are accelerating demand while tightening available space.
From Asia’s frontloading frenzy to Europe’s specialist-sector vulnerabilities and North America’s inland access issues, the message is clear: flexibility and foresight are more crucial than ever. As C.H. Robinson’s update concludes, “Quarter-end demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings.” For shippers hoping to stay ahead, the time to act is now.
