Urban freight emissions have surged by 26 percent across the EU, primarily driven by the explosion of e-commerce and same- or next-day delivery models. Giants like Amazon have trained consumers to expect near-instantaneous service—and the result is a logistical web that’s burning fuel fast and inefficiently.

“It’s a real struggle for logistics companies to meet the expectations of today’s consumers,” explains Asparuh Koev, CEO of Transmetrics. “E-commerce has been so popular since the pandemic, with giants like Amazon making next-day delivery a norm for many larger logistics companies.”

Such expectations have revolutionised last-mile delivery—but not always for the better. With tighter delivery schedules comes a rise in smaller, more frequent loads. Last-minute changes, return logistics, and time-sensitive deliveries all add new layers of complexity. As Koev points out, “We often see last-minute changes and uncoordinated trips leading to empty miles or trucks at half capacity to ensure those service level agreements are met.”

Empty or underfilled vehicles are not just financially inefficient—they emit far more carbon per parcel. The ripple effect is clear. “Logistics leaders have to weigh up the cost of their brand on not delivering in time versus sending out a truck that’s too big for the load,” Koev notes.

The fallout? A sharp drop in average load factors for last-mile deliveries, especially in industries such as grocery or pharmaceuticals, where timing is critical. “A higher emissions output per parcel delivered is nearly inevitable under the current model,” he adds. And this cost comes at both environmental and commercial expense.

With urban congestion choking roadways and consumer expectations rising, logistics providers face a difficult balancing act: satisfy demand or cut emissions—but seldom both simultaneously.

Smarter approach to urban decarbonisation

Last-mile is emerging as the frontline in urban transport decarbonisation. That’s why many EU countries—Germany, France, the Netherlands—are investing in electrified supply chains. “In Western Europe… countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands are investing heavily in electrified last-mile solutions,” Koev explains.

These include e-vans, micro-distribution hubs, and last-mile modes like cargo bikes. He cites Austria’s cargo-bike subsidies and UPS’s network of city micro-hubs as evidence of this pivot. In the UK, Delivery Mates and Mueba are pushing similar boundaries.

The strategy is simple and effective: decentralise inventory, shorten routes, and use appropriately sized vehicles to ensure each truck operates at capacity. “If we have more stock near our customers, we can afford to plan more last-minute short deliveries, using these smaller e-vehicles and maximising capacity,” Koev says.

“We buy ourselves time to navigate less frequent, more periodic, fully loaded long-haul trips to stock these warehouses.” This dual-tier model—smart long-haul and sustainable last-mile—is gaining traction.

While larger electrification of long-haul fleets is underway, true gains in carbon reduction often appear in the final delivery leg. In urban centres, it’s these smaller vehicles that may well make or break sustainability commitments.

And the infrastructure is emerging. More cities now support low-emission zones, electric charging stations, and planning frameworks that encourage e-transport. Companies that proactively engage with these assets, rather than react to regulation, will enjoy early advantages.

AI in the driver’s seat

Where human limits stall, AI can accelerate. The key to unlocking decarbonisation isn’t just using electric vehicles—it’s using them smartly. That’s where Transmetrics enters the picture.

“AI sits at the centre of fuel-efficient short and mid-term logistics planning,” says Koev. “Logistics companies are grappling with the double mandate of reducing emissions while also being agile enough to meet the needs of the current market.”

The complexity is vast: cargo compatibility, emission zone restrictions, vehicle capacities, and traffic patterns all shift by the hour. Take emissions zones in Paris: 11 of them, each with unique standards. Or Warsaw, where trucks over 16 tonnes are barred from downtown streets during peak hours.

Without tech, these rules can trap delivery fleets in inefficiency loops. But with advanced AI systems, companies can navigate in real time—rerouting, reloading, and rescuing SLAs without wasting capacity or violating regulations.

“AI ingests real-time traffic, weather, vehicle capacity, delivery time windows, and driver availability, alongside low-emission zone constraints,” Koev explains. The result? Smarter, greener operations that adapt to city-level complexity without human overload.

These tools also guide strategic planning. Companies can identify ideal micro-hub locations, evaluate fleet mix, and analyse load patterns—all data-driven decisions that layer eco-efficiency onto customer promise.

Reactive and predictive

Planning and responsiveness are two sides of the same coin—and urban delivery demands both in full force. AI can bridge this divide, integrating strategic design with operational agility.

Koev expands on this synergy: “Strategic planning gives you structure… Real-time management gives you agility.” In practice, this may look like pre-stocked cargo zones in cities like Sofia, served primarily by electrified vehicles.

But when disruptions occur—be it a broken-down van or a new rush order—AI dynamically reroutes existing loads or reassigns vehicles to keep things efficient and compliant. This dual-layered responsiveness transforms urban logistics into intelligent ecosystems rather than linear transport chains.

The result is a paradigm shift: we’re not just optimising each delivery—we’re optimising the network as a living system.

From insight to action

The payoff isn’t theoretical—it’s measurable. Leading logistics firms, including DHL and Kuehne+Nagel, have seen direct gains using Transmetrics’ analytics platform. One European courier improved fleet utilisation from 72 percent to over 82 percent, trimming operating costs by 7–9 percent.

That increase in load efficiency also eliminated unnecessary vehicles—and emissions—from the roads. Moreover, the benefits reach beyond carbon gains. Connected data empowers companies to drill down into vehicle types, lanes, fuel efficiency, and customer profitability, uncovering optimisation paths invisible to the naked eye.

Even simple UI improvements, like clearer load-capacity matching screens, can reduce dispatcher errors and improve resource planning. Meanwhile, new generative AI tools can even auto-compose customer quotes in under an hour—and with fewer mistakes. These enhancements not only save time—they open doors to new business opportunities.

Clearing the path

But the path to green logistics isn’t without friction. “One of the biggest barriers is still poor data quality,” Koev warns. Outdated systems, manual tracking, and disparate silos can undermine even the most advanced tools.

Add fragmented team responsibilities around dispatch, customer service, and compliance—and coordination falters too. The cure is simple: start small. Clean data first, then scale digital tools. Begin optimising high-waste areas like load matching or maintenance; expand once trust builds.

Another challenge? Policy alignment. While stricter emission standards and EV subsidies are vital, companies still struggle to fund infrastructure alone. Coordination between private fleets and public investment is essential to avoid stranded assets or under-used charging.