Michael Cox, President of Aviacargo, considers what lies ahead for airfreight in the Americas

ACW: What do you think are the principal market trends currently shaping the air cargo landscape in the United States, and how are they expected to evolve over the next 12-18 months?

E-commerce is undeniably the dominant force across most global markets, not just in the US. A key factor driving this in the US is the $800 de minimis rule, which allows goods valued at or below $800 to be imported duty- and tax-free, without detailed customs procedures. These shipments must be for personal use, not commercial. In essence, the rule simplifies low-value imports by waiving tariffs and paperwork – though this status quo could change.”

Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, and I believe capacity will become a growing concern as we move forward. A decline in inbound tourism to the US from certain regions has allowed larger carriers with diverse fleets to adjust aircraft types to better match demand on specific routes.

In terms of market trends, I believe we’ll continue to see strong growth in the pharmaceutical sector, which remains a key driver. Additionally, there’s increasing momentum in the movement of specialised products, both of which are shaping the future of air cargo demand. 

Fuel costs remain a critical factor with the potential to influence all market trends. In today’s complex geopolitical climate – marked by regional conflicts, trade tensions, and shifting alliances – energy prices are increasingly volatile. These dynamics not only affect operating costs but also shape sourcing strategies, supply chain resilience and overall market behaviour.

ACW: How are the major US carriers leveraging strategic alliances and interline agreements to update cargo?

I believe major carriers will increasingly prioritise Special Prorate Agreements (SPAs) and interline partnerships over traditional alliances. These arrangements offer greater flexibility and help balance capacity more effectively across networks. One of the key advantages of interline agreements is that they allow an airline to expand its network and access new markets without deploying its own aircraft. This enables broader destination offerings. However, the trade-off is reduced control over cargo transfers, which can introduce operational challenges.

Normally of course you would find with a weakening dollar it would entice people to come to the United States but because of the geopolitical situation right now it’s not happening in the same way as before. This means bellyhold capacity, cargo space on passenger aircraft is growing 3% to 4% annually yet cargo demand is only growing at 1% to 2% percent annually so that is one issue.

Freighters are inherently less fuel-efficient than passenger aircraft, largely because all revenue must be generated from cargo alone. Additionally, the supply of new freighter aircraft is limited, which restricts airlines’ ability to scale freighter capacity in response to demand. On top of that, product mix becomes a key consideration. This is where leveraging alliances and interline agreements can play a vital role—they’re an essential part of the broader strategy.

Network connectivity is important, but the type of connectivity needed depends on the kind of operator you are. An integrator with a dedicated freighter network has very different requirements compared to a mainline carrier offering only belly capacity. Load factors play a key role in shaping those needs. Just last week, we had a 20-tonne freight backlog at JFK –  but whether that will be the case in two weeks is anyone’s guess. Predicting trends is becoming increasingly difficult.

People used to laugh when I was asked questions like this, and I’d respond by saying: ‘I don’t have a crystal ball.’ But it was true then, and it still holds today – I stand by what I said all those years ago.

ACW: How is regulatory pressure particularly around emissions and sustainability impacting operational decisions for cargo focused airlines operating in North America in your opinion?

The whole world is still in the position that there isn’t actually enough SAF to go around, so emissions and sustainability impacts are difficult to assess. Of course there will be more flights and at the same time as airlines look at re-fleeting there is going to be greater analysis on things like fuel burn and emissions and the ability to operate using alternative fuel sources.

After the actual aircraft purchase the next biggest spend for an airline is the fuel to operate it so that’s always going to be very high up on their list of priorities.

Regulatory pressures are different around the world and while that remains the case fuel usage and potential alternatives will likely be the top focus for operational decisions.

ACW: Which US regions or gateways do you consider it is demonstrating the strongest cargo volume growth and what is underpinning their performance?

This is a great question, and the answer for the US is likely quite different from other regions due to the country’s extensive trucking infrastructure. Passenger flights in the US are heavily centred around major hubs, with narrowbody aircraft transporting passengers to and from these central locations. As a result, road freight plays a critical role in the US air cargo ecosystem, ensuring cargo is efficiently moved to and from these hubs.

Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Miami and so on all need feed from the extensive road truck network while freighters go into different airports which are not necessarily the passenger orientated locations.And within that trucking network there are many regional specialists such as those who just concentrate on the eastern seaboard or just the west coast. Trucking really is extensive in the US and has massive interstate system network. It’s not like trucking say in Africa which is entirely different.

In the US there are also companies capitalising on e-commerce and tax rates within different states. If I bought a phone in New York and it’s being delivered to me in New York I must pay New York sales tax.

If an e-commerce operator is based in a state like Delaware, where there’s no sales tax, they can purchase goods from a US company and have them shipped to a Delaware address – avoiding for example New York’s 8.875% sales tax. These operators often consolidate shipments in tax-free states and then transport them to cities like Philadelphia, Washington DC or New York. It’s no surprise, then, that e-commerce activity is growing in these regions, whether the goods are moved by truck or air.

ACW: How are fluctuations in international trade volumes and tariffs, here’s a weird one, influencing trans-pacific and transatlantic cargo flows?

I believe this is just the beginning. The issue with tariffs is that they inevitably cause disruptions. These hikes tend to trigger sudden surges followed by de-escalations, which leads to a highly reactionary environment. This puts a strain on capacity – especially in ocean freight – because when significant tariffs are imposed, operators relocate equipment accordingly. But if the situation changes overnight, that equipment ends up in the wrong place, making it difficult to restart operations efficiently. Airfreight is generally more adaptable in these scenarios compared to ocean freight.

Airfreight is easier because the difference is how long does it take a ship to cross the Atlantic and cross the Pacific and how long does it take an airline to position an aircraft. Shippers seem to be taking a much more wait-and-see approach as we move into the second half of the year.

Businesses aren’t stockpiling goods, but they are moving their inventory to different locations. Everything is currently so reactionary, a hike could be put in place and then overnight it goes away, meaning the flow of goods is going to speed up again and the only businesses that can really speed up the flow of goods very quickly is airfreight.

ACW: What role are technological innovations such as AI-driven logistics or digital booking platforms playing in enhancing efficiency and customer experience across the U.S. air freight market, which of those are exciting you?

“This is what excites me about the future of AI. Imagine a freight forwarder sends an email to ‘ANOther at Aviacargo’—there’s no need for manual reading. AI instantly processes the message, identifies that the sender has 100 pieces bound for Johannesburg, and seamlessly integrates that data into our capacity and control system. It then automatically generates and sends a quote back to the sender, streamlining the entire workflow.

So we won’t need human intervention for this simple stuff but still delivered the customer the information they asked for in a very timely manner.  You do of course need to come back to human intervention where there are complications for a potential booking but this excites me because it means that means there are efficiencies to be had, and you can handle and process more shipments in a 24-hour period.

This approach significantly boosts customer satisfaction by providing a seamless, automated experience—while still ensuring human support is available when needed. We’ve already begun integrating AI tools across the business, and we’re committed to expanding and enhancing these capabilities over the next 12 months.

Change is often uncomfortable—it’s human nature to resist it. That’s why it’s crucial to ensure our team feels supported and valued as we navigate this AI journey together. At the same time, we must not lose sight of the human element that defines our industry. We are, first and foremost, a people business. If we allow technology to overshadow that, we risk facing real challenges. Embrace AI, leverage its capabilities, and let it enhance what we do—but don’t let it take over. Use it as a tool for progress, not as a replacement for human connection. Make it a force for good.

ACW: And finally, looking ahead, where do the most significant investment opportunities lie for stakeholders to strengthen their presence in the North American air freight ecosystem?

Investment opportunities within the US are often shaped by connections to international markets, agencies and trade partners. While sectors such as pharmaceuticals, perishables, e-commerce and high-tech electronics continue to show strong potential, they are well-established rather than emerging. The real opportunity lies in how companies adapt their global strategies in response to evolving trade dynamics and the current geopolitical environment.

Sustainability will undoubtedly be a major focus in the future, but equally important is the potential for opportunities to emerge from areas we cannot yet foresee. Flexibility must therefore be the guiding principle. While carbon offsetting, emissions tracking and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) are already priorities for some carriers, the ability to stay agile and make swift, informed decisions remains paramount.

The challenge is that action needs to be taken now, but many large organisations simply aren’t able to respond quickly enough.

Take our customer, Kenya Airways, for example. One of their current focus areas is optimising aircraft belly utilization by closely tracking available cargo capacity in relation to passenger loads. This is a critical initiative, as much of the process can be automated using AI to deliver the most efficient outcomes.

There are countless opportunities for airlines in the US and globally to expand their use of AI—whether it’s optimising passenger and cargo loads, forecasting no-shows or accelerating data analysis. AI can process vast datasets far more efficiently than humans and when accuracy is maintained, it delivers rapid, actionable insights. That’s a win-win for everyone.