After a series of recent falls, global airfreight rates firmed up slightly last week, according to the latest data from TAC Index. The global Baltic Airfreight Index (BAI00), calculated by TAC, rose by 1.5 percent in the week to 12 May, leaving it not far below where it was 12 months ago, down 3.6 percent year-on-year.

Sources reported that the ongoing trade stand-off and very high tariff levels between the US and China had led to the cancellation of many block space agreements (BSAs). However, this was significantly offset by a sharp reduction in transpacific freighter capacity. Following the subsequent announcement of a new US-China trade deal, sources now expect both volume and capacity to increase again, in a race to restock empty shelves.

Out of China, rates to the US were already rising again last week, while rates on lanes to Europe remained largely unchanged—having not fallen as much previously. Despite continuing weakness in spot rates, the index of outbound routes from Hong Kong (BAI30) edged up overall by 1.1 percent week-on-week, leaving it 5.6 percent down year-on-year. Outbound Shanghai (BAI80) gained a similar 0.9 percent week-on-week, leaving it 7.8 percent lower year-on-year. Rates from Vietnam were increasing to Europe but declining to the US. Out of India, the trends were reversed—with rates rising to the US but falling to Europe.

From Europe, there was little change overall on lanes to China and Japan, while rates to the US dipped slightly. The index of outbound routes from Frankfurt (BAI20) rose by 1.8 percent week-on-week, leaving it still ahead by 6.9 percent year-on-year. Outbound London Heathrow (BAI40) bounced back strongly from recent steep declines, gaining 21.3 percent week-on-week and reducing its year-on-year drop to 9.3 percent.

From North America, rates were generally rising again on lanes to Europe, China, and South America. However, after significant recent gains, the index of outbound routes from Chicago (BAI50) fell back by 7.0 percent week-on-week—though it remains well ahead, up 20.0 percent year-on-year.