Import airfreight in the Australian market has always been a volatile beast, with five recessionary periods between 2000-2024, but currently there is a 3 percent increase year-on-year and we are coming back to pre-Covid levels.
Our exports hardly grew between 2003-2013 but have grown 10 percent per annum between 2014-2019 mainly because of the Chinese market however, since then, exports have dropped because of fewer exports to China. This was partly due to the Liberal government’s position on China and, thus, tariff restrictions were imposed by Beijing in retaliation, but the current Labour Government has opened dialogue with China and our exports should hopefully grow again.
On the import side, the number of low-value shipments are on the increase due to online shopping trends and the introduction of the likes of TEMU (China) into the Australian consumer market.
The vast majority of airfreight into and out of Australia moves on passenger aircraft and as we see the number of carriers returning to the Australian market so we see capacity increase. Once China and Japan reopened their borders and tourists returned so did the number of flights. During Covid freighter capacity grew massively but is now back down to pre-Covid levels. This is mainly due to the fact there are not the loads out of Australia for freighters on a regular basis. We are seeing more Asian carriers enter the market, particularly from China, but still British Airways are the only direct European carrier flying to Australia.
As mentioned above the outlook is a positive one as the graph below will show. It is expected our exports will continue to grow as the Chinese market reopens and the weak Australian dollar makes our goods more competitive.
The following two tables show the current export and import weights vs peak periods.On the export side all lanes are down against peak levels but we are hopeful China will recover soon now relations between the two countries is on the improve.
At the minute imports are also down against peak levels in all major markets. This is due to many factors, including low exchange rates, higher than expected inflation and higher than pre-Covid freight rates, although these are coming down. As mentioned already, small packages have filled some of this gaps, and traffic levels are not much below the 2018-19 peaks.
It is expected we will see more growth as we come into the peak periods of the last quarter of 2024. Other factors are the delays in shipping, which see some cargo converting to airfreight though this is likely to be short term gain as the market settles and adjusts to the changes.
In summary, the outlook for airfreight into and out of Australia is fairly positive, and we should continue to see growth in both sectors in the coming months.
Airfreight is at the crossroads of some major changes, the introduction of sustainable air fuels (SAF) will change the market and possibly increase airfreight costs certainly in the short term. Digitalisation is being promoted by carriers, ground handlers and freight forwarders alike as is the introduction of artificial intelligence which will bring a whole raft of challenges to the airfreight industry. However, as it has done in the past the industry will rise to these challenges and continue to provide service to all parts of the industry.
