According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, average global spot rates recorded a further +5 percent WoW rise in week 45 (4 to 10 November), taking them +24 percent above their equivalent levels this time last year. Spot prices from the biggest worldwide origin region, Asia-Pacific, rose by a further +6 percent, WoW, to US$4.43 per kilo, with the second-largest origin region, Europe, showing also a +6 percent WoW increase, to US$2.49 per kilo, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Rates from Central & South America (CSA) rose even more steeply, by +10 percent, to US$2.04 per kilo, with prices from North America recording a +5 percent increase, to $1.83 per kilo. There were WoW falls in spot rates from Africa (-4 percent) and Middle East & South Asia (MESA, -2 percent).
Compared with the equivalent week last year, when various markets were already experiencing the effects of strong peak-season demand, spot prices this year remain significantly elevated, year on year (YoY), notably from Asia Pacific (+25 percent), MESA (+70 percent), Europe (+14 percent), and CSA (+14 percent), with Africa also +10% higher and North America recording a +5 percent increase, YoY.
On the demand side, worldwide chargeable weight flown in week 45 was stable, WoW, with small increases from Europe, Africa and CSA origins wiped out by decreases from North America and MESA (both -4 percent, WoW). Compared with last year, worldwide tonnages were up, YoY, by just +2 percent in week 45. That’s a significantly smaller YoY growth figure compared with most weeks in the last six or seven months, although the comparison period this time last year was a tough one, as volumes were in the midst of a strong fourth-quarter peak season.
2Wo2W analysis
Comparing weeks 44 and 45 this year with the previous two weeks (a 2Wo2W comparison) reveals a +3 percent full-market increase in rates, 2Wo2W, driven by a +5 percent increase from Europe origins and a +4 percent increase from Asia-Pacific, taking average worldwide prices +12 percent percent higher, YoY. One market experiencing a particularly strong rise in rates is Europe to North America, where rates rose +16 percent, on a 2Wo2W basis, despite a -9 percent drop in tonnages flown on that lane. That reflects a fall in passenger belly capacity on the transatlantic following the start of the airline sector’s (northern) winter 2024-25 timetable from 27 October, combined with relatively high load factors on the westbound transatlantic market.
Meanwhile, worldwide flown chargeable weight in weeks 44 and 45 was down -4 percent, compared with the preceding two weeks, including declines of -8 percent from MESA origins and -5 percent from Europe and Africa origins. Compared with last year, worldwide flown tonnages were up +4 percent in weeks 44 and 45 this year, with YoY growth from all the main origin regions except MESA, which recorded a -3 percent YoY decrease, most likely reflecting the impact of the increased military and geopolitical tensions in the region, and Africa (-1 percent, YoY).
Capacity analysis
Global air cargo capacity in weeks 44 and 45 fell by -3 percent, on a 2Wo2W basis – partly reflecting the start of the winter timetable, although it was also down -2 percent compared with last year, chiefly due to -4 percent YoY drops from Europe and North America origins.
Analysis of the capacity situation in week 45 reveals a WoW drop in passenger capacity of slightly over -1 percent, despite some recovery from European airports. However, there was also a WoW increase in freighter capacity of around +3 percent, resulting in overall WoW cargo capacity growth of almost +1 percent, WoW. Some of that reflects a recovery of capacity following typhoon Kong-rey, which particularly impacted Taiwan but also parts of mainland China. But there were new routes and capacity being added to India, particularly to Delhi. And last week also saw a significant increase in capacity from the big global integrators, reflecting an ongoing rise in peak-season express traffic, including from the e-commerce sector.
