• 2025 was marked by unprecedented global trade volatility, with inflation, US tariffs, and sudden policy changes challenging businesses, particularly those trading internationally, highlighting the need for agile specialist carriers and adaptable strategies
• Duty collection processes such as DDU are becoming more complex and costly, prompting retailers to adopt upfront duty calculations to improve customer experience and reduce administrative burdens
• AI is increasingly used to manage logistics data, reduce errors, ensure compliance, and streamline operations while lessons from Brexit underline the vulnerability of SMEs to regulatory change, emphasizing that preparation, resilience, and trusted partnerships are critical for success in 2026

2025 could be summarised by many adjectives, ranging from interesting and dynamic, to frustrating and tumultuous. It has been 12 months of near unprecedented volatility of a kind not seen since the Second World War, but there are many things that small and large businesses alike can benefit from as we look ahead into the new year.

The swirling trade landscape

2025 was a challenging time for companies around the world.

Inflation continued to move the international goal posts, with the latest figures from the House of Commons Library saying UK inflation was 3.6% in October, EU inflation was 2.5% during the same period, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York stating: “Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in October.”

Moreover, in the past 12 months, the US has imposed a suite of trade tariffs on almost all its international trade partners, which has caused disruptions around the globe.

Whilst changes in trade policies, such as the de minimis removal, have incurred problems, what’s often more challenging is the seeming spontaneity with which they have happened. Little warning, and massive implications, is a tough combination for even the most prepared of businesses.

International trade turbulence, combined with a harsher domestic climate, makes for a tricky period for those trying to sell overseas. How then can those cross-border traders cope? Who can help them? And what is the best approach for managing the rapidly shifting sands of international commerce?

In short, it’s vitally important that companies looking to trade internationally, especially with the USA, have access to specialist carriers that are agile enough to best navigate, what are expected to remain, choppy seas.

Looking out for DDU

Changes in import policy at any level have a knock-on effect for consumers, and with the removal of de minimis exemptions, the question of duty collection is yet to be settled. While often seen as the most straightforward approach for retailers, DDU can be clunky and result in a negative customer experience.

This is frequently due to customers being required to make a separate payment to cover duties – sometimes on items intended as gifts, or even received from loved ones abroad.

For retailers, DDU can also be expensive to administer. Many companies that manage this process face onerous charges due to its complexity, as well as the risks associated with calculating duties and collecting payments.

With duties expected to remain in place throughout next year and beyond, a more flexible approach to collection may be necessary.

Broadly speaking, companies are improving at collecting duties upfront, with accurate calculations made at the point of sale. This provides customers with greater certainty around costs and expectations.

The growing influence of AI

As with many industries, AI is yet to deliver the tangible benefits it promised. Perhaps the hype should have caused raised eyebrows.

That said, the value of AI in logistics is as a tool to support the work done by team members. Where the foundation of logistics has remained the same – moving an item from one place to another – the complexity in how this achieved is growing year on year.

With so much data attached to each parcel, the immediate value of AI is in managing that dataflow, ensuring consistency, eradicating mistakes in ‘paperwork’, and creating a seamless audit trail and letting staff focus on what really matters – running the business and keeping customers happy.

So, AI tools can organise and consolidate shipment data from multiple sources – emails, texts, ERP and TMS systems, and more – making it easily and consistently accessible for the consumer.

In turn, AI can also reduce the number of errors, ensure every parcel is compliant with legislation, and make sure the goods being transported are assessed correctly for duties and taxes.

Lessons from Brexit

2026 marks the ten-year anniversary of the UK’s historic vote to leave the European Union, and while much of the dust has yet to settle there are some key lessons to take from it as we move into the year and beyond.

The first is that in many ways trade fiction is more impactful than tariffs. Byzantine administration, customs inspections, and regulatory divergences have slowed down trade – and as we all know, time is money. Companies looking to circumvent these barriers – especially those in time-sensitive industries such as pharmaceuticals and food – have been disproportionately affected by the delays, so investing in processes and partners that meet these challenges is crucial.

Moreover, one clear lesson from Brexit is that SMEs are significantly more exposed to geo-political change than their multinational counterparts. Higher compliance costs and navigating ever-changing regulations is causing significant headaches for smaller exporters.

This raises the importance of trust. Finding partners who are experienced in these fields is more vital than ever before, allowing businesses to focus on what they do best, providing valuable products and services to customers around the world.

Ultimately, Brexit has taught us not take the relatively cool trading environment of the 90s and early 2000s as an eternal standard. Complacency in international hegemony must be put to one side, especially in the wake of such uncertainty. While the impact of Brexit continues to be understood, we must prepare for the next challenge.

Looking to 2026, one theme cuts across every lesson from the past year: resilience through preparation and agility. Volatility in trade policy, rising compliance burdens, evolving customer expectations and the growing role of AI are not temporary disruptions, but foundational shifts in how global trade operates. Businesses that succeed will be those that invest in smarter systems, trusted partners and customer-centric approaches that remove friction wherever possible.