The newly imposed US tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and components are beginning to reshape the automotive supply chain—with airfreight caught in the crosswinds. While short-term demand has spiked as manufacturers rush to beat deadlines, the long-term effect is expected to suppress air cargo volumes, reconfigure trade routes, and increase customs complexity.

“The newly imposed US tariffs on foreign-made cars and parts are expected to reduce overall automobile imports, primarily due to the increase in associated costs,” Chris Clowes, Executive Director at SCALA, said.

“In the short term, however, some manufacturers have accelerated shipments to beat the implementation deadline, which has temporarily boosted demand for airfreight.”

Even with reduced imports on the horizon, airfreight demand may hold steady for certain critical components. “Over the longer term, a decline in import volumes is likely to reduce overall demand for airfreight, though critical components required for assembly are still expected to drive a significant level of air freight activity.”

But capacity is only part of the equation—compliance presents a new chokepoint. “US customs teams may face challenges in processing the surge in shipments, both before full implementation of the tariffs and afterwards, as companies adjust to the new requirements,” Clowes said.

“The increased workload involved in ensuring compliance, coupled with limited resources, could result in bottlenecks at ports and airports. This may delay cargo clearance and drive up costs for manufacturers that depend on timely airfreight deliveries.”

Financials in focus

As manufacturing costs rise, airfreight’s position in the supply chain becomes more strategic than default. “Rising production costs will compel automakers to streamline operations, which may lead to a reduced reliance on airfreight due to cost constraints,” Clowes continued.

“However, in cases where delays would disrupt production, particularly for critical components, manufacturers are likely to continue using airfreight to maintain output.”

Hybrid and chartered solutions may become more prominent. “As airfreight becomes more expensive, automakers may increasingly consider hybrid transport methods, such as sea-air or rail-air, to balance speed and cost. Some may even choose to charter dedicated cargo aircraft for high-priority shipments or form alliances to secure capacity.”

Meanwhile, customs processing must evolve to keep pace with the new demand profile.

“Technology, such as AI-driven customs clearance and blockchain-enabled supply chain tracking, may help to expedite customs processing and reduce some of the delays resulting from increased airfreight volumes.”

The global automotive industry has long relied on just-in-time logistics. That model may now be showing cracks. “Just-in-time (JIT) supply chains rely on rapid replenishment of components,” Clowes noted.

“If tariffs disrupt established supplier relationships, manufacturers may need to use airfreight to bridge supply gaps or mitigate delays from sourcing new suppliers, increasing volatility in airfreight demand.”

Still, many companies may hesitate to make drastic changes—at least for now. “Some companies may hesitate to make large-scale changes to their supply chains, especially if they believe the current tariffs could be reversed by a future US administration,” he said.

“While President Biden did not roll back the tariffs introduced under President Trump, businesses may still weigh the benefits of absorbing short-term costs against the risks of committing to long-term restructuring.

“Manufacturers may begin to route shipments through less congested customs checkpoints to avoid delays at major hubs. As a result, alternative air cargo hubs could see increased demand.”

Moving manufacturing

The landscape is already beginning to change. “Some manufacturers may choose to shift production to the US to avoid tariffs, either by expanding capacity at existing facilities or by investing in new ones,” Clowes explained.

“This would likely reduce demand for transatlantic airfreight but could increase intra-regional airfreight volumes as domestic supply chains are restructured and require faster movement of parts from new suppliers.”

New trade routes may emerge in parallel with new alliances. “There is also a risk that the US market becomes more isolated, as countries affected by the tariffs may pursue new trade deals independently,” he said.

“In this environment, Chinese automakers with growing production capabilities in Mexico could become unexpected beneficiaries, using Mexico as a base to access the US without direct exposure to the new tariffs.”

But new opportunities may come with new risks. “These shifts could also introduce more complex customs procedures, as companies adjust to differing regulatory environments. A well-resourced and technologically advanced customs infrastructure will be crucial to avoid delays and disruptions.”