• Gulf-based cargo carriers are adapting to shifting global trade flows by investing in fleet expansion, infrastructure, and digital solutions to strengthen their long-term competitiveness.

• With global air cargo capacity outpacing demand, regional players are focusing on cost efficiency, network flexibility, and niche services such as e-commerce and time-critical shipments.

• Leaders at Emirates, Etihad, Saudia Cargo, and dnata highlight the growing importance of digital integration, data quality, and ecosystem-wide collaboration to meet rising customer expectations in 2026.

Middle East cargo firms are stepping into 2026 with a blend of optimism and caution, against the backdrop of underperforming cargo routes around the world, as well as volatile global trade flows. New trade maps, freight stress and rising demand for specialised services are altering the competitive landscape for the region. Rather than simply reacting, Gulf-based carriers and handlers are making strategic investments in infrastructure, digitisation and key partnerships to secure their long-term future in the region.

Global air shipments flows underwent a structural shift last year. Geopolitical tensions and tariff realignments accelerated the diversification of sourcing strategies — most notably the pivot away from China — changing demand patterns across key corridors. As Abdulelah Altunisi, CFO of Saudia Cargo, explained: “The defining moment for the airfreight industry in 2025 was the profound shift in global supply chains, particularly the diversification away from China toward other regions and increased flows to Europe and the Middle East.”

Although this disruption was not without difficulties, it allowed Middle Eastern carriers to reassert themselves as transit systems that customers increasingly rely on. Emirates SkyCargo emphasised the idea of adaptability as circumstances changed rapidly.

“We had to adapt quickly—rerouting shipments, redeploying capacity, rethinking strategies and working in close coordination with our customers and partners to keep a steady flow of goods moving,” said Badr Abbas, Divisional Senior Vice President at Emirates SkyCargo.

Data-driven analysis from Etihad Cargo underscored just how permanent these changes are: China–U.S. volumes fell almost 20 percent, and imports from Taiwan and Vietnam surged. India has now overtaken China as the largest airfreight origin for smartphones, reflecting longer-term changes in high-value technology cargo flows.

This repositioning, as noted by Guillaume Crozier, chief cargo officer at dnata, also made the UAE a “preferred logistics hub,” propelled by strong connectivity and cross-sector collaboration.

Despite this trade momentum, 2025 was no windfall year for carriers. Capacity was outpacing demand in many markets around the world, causing yields to be squeezed while increasing the need for efficiency. For Middle East companies, the key factor for success became increasingly reliant on cost control, network flexibility and targeted market focus.

“The biggest difficulty had been to meet margins to support continued resilience amid demand volatility and increasing capacity, and therefore sustainability,” Altunisi wrote, referring to Saudia Cargo’s focus on maintaining profitable freighter operations, underpinned by reduced fuel costs and efficient aircraft use. While freighter traffic increased, structural imbalances between supply and demand remained. Etihad Cargo’s Andy Newbold noted that “international air cargo capacity has been effectively flat since 2019 and freighter supply is heavily concentrated among integrators.” That imbalance will remain, he warned, in 2026.

Technology and cooperation also surfaced as the main stabilisers. Crozier observed that interoperable tools and greater coordination between airlines, handlers and customs authorities eased responses to such disruptions. Emirates, for its part, focused on time-critical markets, with the debut of Emirates Courier Express — a speedy, versatile e-commerce service available in nine markets.

Looking ahead to 2026, tight throughput and higher-than-average customer expectations should be the driving forces shaping the operating environment. Forward-thinking carriers are doubling down on fleet growth, digital transformation and tailored offers to remain competitive. Emirates, for instance, anticipates imminent strain on freighter availability.

“We see a potential industry-wide crunch in freighter capacity from next year through to 2030,” said Abbas. Emirates intends to nearly double the number of its freighters by the end of 2026, adding several 777Fs to its delivery schedules.

But as a handful of executives note, capacity alone won’t be enough to ensure success. It is not enough to remain at the top; network flexibility, service reliability and digital service layers that separate market leaders will only further widen these differences.

“Global air cargo enters 2026 with strong demand but tight supply,” said Etihad’s Newbold. “With demand rising, supply constrained, and trade lanes continuing to shift, 2026 is shaping up to be another strong year for agile, customer-focused operators.”

Crozier also highlighted the important foundational work still required across the value chain: “The industry should focus on strengthening its foundations: data quality, interoperability, and collaboration across the value chain.”

At Saudia Cargo, the company prioritises value generation by digitising its offerings and leveraging industry-specific knowledge. “Success will hinge on delivering superior value beyond speed—through efficiency, bespoke solutions, and seamless digital integration,” Altunisi said, citing growth possibilities in Southeast Asia and niche verticals like e-commerce.

Despite maintaining their commercial competitiveness, some Gulf carriers are openly promoting closer cooperation across the cargo ecosystem. As supply chains become more complex and customer needs more fragmented, coordinated action is no longer just a benefit, but a necessity.

“The greatest opportunity in 2026 lies in strengthening collaboration across the cargo ecosystem,” Crozier said. Enhancing information sharing and aligned decision-making, he noted, is critical to maintaining performance as business pressure increases.

Fleet and network investments will also remain a key factor. Emirates is extending its reach on the back of A350 aircraft, and Etihad is adding more service metrics to its customer value stack.

“With a clear focus on customer performance, service quality, and innovative propositions, the company is well-positioned for another strong year,” said Newbold.