Central Asia is moving from the periphery of global aviation to a central role in East–West connectivity, driven by shifting geopolitical realities and the urgent need for resilient trade routes. With instability in the Middle East disrupting traditional air corridors, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are emerging as a viable and increasingly attractive alternative.

Recent developments signal that this is not a temporary detour, but a structural reconfiguration of airfreight flows. What began as limited bilateral cooperation between Central Asian states and the People’s Republic of China has evolved into a coordinated strategy to transform the region into a logistics bridge between Asia’s manufacturing hubs and Europe’s consumer markets.

Rising capacity and cargo-focused connectivity

Passenger flight expansion is at the heart of this shift, with direct benefits for airfreight. According to China’s civil aviation authority, direct flights now connect Chinese cities with all five Central Asian capitals, with weekly scheduled passenger services reaching 151 flights—nearly double 2024’s total and triple pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

The increased passenger frequencies bring significant growth in bellyhold cargo capacity, supporting time-sensitive and high-value commodities such as e-commerce shipments, pharmaceuticals and automotive components. This capacity complements a growing number of dedicated freighter services across the region.

Route integration is also advancing. China Southern Airlines has entered codeshare agreements with Air Astana and Uzbekistan Airways, optimising schedules for both passengers and cargo. Revised bilateral air service agreements have eased operational constraints, making it easier to deploy capacity in response to shifting demand.

Geopolitical realignment of air cargo flows

The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) mid-2025 Cargo Market Analysis records a 12.5 percent year-on-year increase in global demand in cargo tonne-kilometres during the first half of 2025. However, the growth distribution is uneven. Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 3.1 percent contraction in international freight, largely due to airspace restrictions and operational disruptions, while Central Asia recorded an estimated 8.7 percent increase in international cargo flows.

WorldACD’s Q2 2025 figures confirm the upward trend, showing a 14 percent rise in chargeable weight on routes transiting Kazakhstan. Sectors showing the strongest gains include e-commerce, spare parts logistics and temperature-controlled pharmaceuticals—industries that benefit from reduced transit times and more predictable routing compared with congested or politically sensitive corridors.

This transformation is not solely driven by rerouted traffic from conflict zones. It is also fuelled by deliberate policy measures and investment in infrastructure. Kazakhstan has expanded its free trade zones, integrated customs facilities within airport boundaries and aligned logistics development with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, positioning itself as a natural transit hub for Eurasian trade.

Policy coordination and institutional frameworks

Regional aviation policy is becoming more structured. The Eurasian Civil Aviation Conference (EACAC), established in 2024 under Kazakhstan’s leadership, provides a platform for joint engagement with ICAO, IATA, the European Commission and other global stakeholders.

Balancing growth with infrastructure readiness

Despite rapid progress, infrastructure capacity remains a constraint. ICAO estimates suggest that Central Asia’s combined cargo handling capability lags behind that of major Middle Eastern and European hubs by more than 40 percent. Capacity is concentrated primarily in Kazakhstan, leaving other states with limited handling facilities for large-scale throughput.

Bottlenecks are possible without significant upgrades to warehousing, ground handling and cold chain storage. However, progress is being made. Kazakhstan is developing multimodal links that connect China–Europe freight trains to airfreight networks for time-critical shipments, while Uzbekistan is expanding apron space and modernising cargo terminals.

Industry experts warn that the region’s competitive edge could erode if infrastructure investment does not keep pace with traffic growth. Scalable logistics capacity, harmonised customs procedures and regulatory predictability will be essential.

From bilateral links to regional integration

A key policy evolution is the move from bilateral agreements towards a cohesive regional aviation framework. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Transport has outlined plans to expand city-pair connections beyond capital cities, opening direct links between secondary markets.

This transition supports the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement objectives by reducing procedural delays and improving reliability. It also complements IATA’s drive for full digitalisation of the cargo value chain through universal e-Air Waybill (e-AWB) adoption and integrated cargo community systems, which can speed up clearance times and enhance transparency.

Strategic takeaways for the air cargo sector

1 Geopolitical diversification – Central Asia is becoming a viable long-term alternative to traditional East–West corridors.

2 Bellyhold lift as a growth engine – Expanding passenger services directly boosts airfreight capacity.

3 Sustainability and compliance – Early investment in SAF and digital compliance systems will secure market access.

4 Regional policy coordination – Structures such as EACAC can set unified standards for trans-Eurasian cargo flows.

5 Indian market integration – Using Central Asia as a transit hub can help India achieve its cargo growth ambitions.

Path to becoming a mainline corridor

The shift from a peripheral transit zone to a central artery in the global airfreight network is now well underway. With geopolitical shifts acting as a catalyst and policy frameworks supporting long-term planning, Central Asia has the potential to rival established hubs in both throughput and service reliability.

The challenge will be to match infrastructure development with rising demand, embed sustainability from the outset and maintain cross-border policy alignment. If those conditions are met, the next five years could see Central Asia emerge not as an emergency alternative, but as a permanent fixture in the architecture of global air logistics.