• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that global airlines will achieve a net profit of $41 billion in 2026, maintaining a 3.9 percent net margin. This reflects steady financial recovery despite continued challenges such as supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory burdens.
• Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion, with load factors hitting a record 83.8 percent. Air cargo volumes are projected to grow to 71.6 million tonnes, supported by strong e-commerce and semiconductor demand. Overall industry revenues will rise by 4.5 percent, reaching $1.053 trillion.
• Operating profit is set to grow to $72.8 billion, but return on invested capital (6.8 percent) will remain below the estimated cost of capital (8.2 percent). Fuel costs are expected to ease slightly, although non-fuel costs such as labour, maintenance, and compliance continue to rise.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry showing a stabilisation of profitability even as supply chain issues persist. Highlights include:

Airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $41 billion in 2026 (up from $39.5 billion in 2025). While this would set a new record, the net profit margin is expected to be unchanged from 2025 at 3.9 percent. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90 (below the 2023 high of $8.50, and unchanged from 2025).

Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be $72.8 billion (up from $67.0 billion in 2025) for a net operating margin of 6.9 percent (improved on the 6.6 percent expected for 2025).

Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 6.8 percent (unchanged from 2025). Despite deleveraging and improved operating profitability, ROIC is expected to remain below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) estimated to be 8.2 percent in 2026.

Total industry revenues are expected to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026 (up 4.5 percent on the $1.008 trillion expected revenues in 2025).

Load factors are forecast to continue to set record highs with airlines expected to fill 83.8 percent of all seats over the year 2026.

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026 (up 4.4 percent on 2025).

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026 (up 2.4 percent on 2025).

“Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9 percent net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. That’s extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces—rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens among them. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

While strong performance of airlines in the face of a changing and challenging operating environment is impressive, the fact that the airline industry collectively does not generate earnings that cover its cost of capital remains an issue to be resolved.

“Industry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies. They stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly 4 percent of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than the $7.90 airlines will make transporting the average passenger. And even within the air transport value chain, airline margins are totally out of balance, particularly when compared to margins of engine and avionics manufacturers and many of our service suppliers. Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we could rebalance value chain profitability, reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies,” said Walsh.

Air cargo’s performance is of particular interest as it has defied many predictions of gloom to hold its own amid rapidly changing trading conditions.

“The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive. As trade flows adapt to a protectionist US tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments. Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and centre as the global economy adjusts to new realities,” said Walsh.