• 2025 saw extreme regulatory uncertainty, with erratic US–Mexico tariff announcements and enforcement creating operational disruption, driving importers to accelerate or pause shipments and boosting reliance on airfreight for time-sensitive cargo.
• Mexico’s export growth is primarily driven by near sourcing rather than large-scale factory relocations, while the upcoming 2026 USMCA review and border unpredictability are prompting shippers to diversify routes and rely more on freight forwarders and customs brokers.
• Policy volatility is now considered a permanent factor in air cargo, reinforcing the need for agility, with operators using airfreight to maintain resilience amid shifting tariffs, enforcement practices, and transatlantic regulatory divergence.

If one word defined the mood across three policy-heavy sessions at Air Cargo Americas, it would have to be uncertainty. Executives described 2025 as the most erratic regulatory year in recent memory, one where tariff proposals, enforcement priorities, and political messaging shifted fast enough to distort planning cycles and force shippers into reaction mode.

What came about in Miami was the sense that tariff instability is no longer a macro backdrop. It’s now a direct operational variable, influencing booking rhythms, modal decisions, and shipper behaviour on both sides of the US border.

Tariff volatility becomes a supply-chain disruptor

Panelists were clear that 2025’s challenge was not the level of tariffs but the erratic process behind them. Rules changed without warning, implementation dates slipped, and rumours moved markets.

Luis Hernandez, Executive Vice President of Intermodal Grupo Mexico Transportes, summed the problem up best: “Tariffs are announced today, may apply tomorrow, or may not.”

This policy whiplash drove importers to accelerate shipments to beat potential increases, only to pause when Washington signalled delays. These irregularities created pressure at US gateways, with airfreight repeatedly acting as the corrective mode when time was of the essence.

Even proposals that never advanced, such as the White House’s threatened 50 percent tariff on Chinese imports, were destabilising enough to shift booking patterns.

Nearshoring vs near sourcing: pinpointing the real trend

Panelists also warned against conflating nearshoring headlines with the underlying data. While Mexico continues to gain strength as a supplier to the US, the expected wave of foreign factory relocations has not materialised.

Diego Rodriguez of Americas Market Intelligence clarified the reality: “90 percent of Mexico’s foreign direct investment is just reinvestment from companies already in Mexico.”

Mexico’s export growth is therefore driven by near sourcing, Mexican producers supplying more to US buyers, not by large-scale relocation from Asia. That means the global tariff environment, particularly US–China measures, continues to influence demand patterns even as North American integration deepens.

USMCA renewal adds another layer of risk

The upcoming 2026 USMCA review dominated much of the policy discussion. Most speakers believed renewal is the most likely outcome, but a politically charged negotiation is to be expected.

“Mexico will have to sit at the table and offer concessions… the USMCA will be renewed next year,” Rodriguez also predicted, pointing to energy and China-alignment issues as flashpoints.

The uncertainty surrounding the review is already prompting shippers to diversify routes and seek customs advisory support, behaviour airlines say has become more prevalent.

Border unpredictability boosts airfreight

For many operators, the most disruptive factor of 2025 was inconsistent enforcement at US–Mexico border crossings, not tariff levels themselves. Representatives from the US–Mexico Chamber of Commerce said unclear guidance routinely left goods stuck in procedural limbo.

These hold-ups repeatedly redirected time-sensitive loads into air networks. Several carriers said northbound demand spikes reflected shippers trying to bypass unpredictable land queues as much as avoiding tariff timing.

Strategic gains

Another clear theme was the rising importance of freight forwarders and customs brokers. With tariff rules shifting quickly and enforcement tightening, shippers increasingly relied on intermediaries to interpret policies, verify documentation, and build contingency plans.

Rodriguez described a sharp change in customer behaviour: “We’re seeing shippers coming to us asking: how can we beat this? What alternatives do we have?”

This dynamic has strengthened forwarders’ position along the US–Mexico corridor and encouraged larger BCOs to centralise compliance oversight.

Friction in transatlantic trade

Policy volatility was not limited to North America this year. Speakers warned that competing emissions rules, subsidy frameworks, and digital-trade agendas could add more uncertainty next year. Although not as volatile as the US–Mexico environment, transatlantic flows are being shaped by regulatory divergence that may affect capacity planning and compliance costs.

Several panelists argued that policy risk has become a permanent operating condition, not a cyclical disruption.

Policy unpredictability: the new normal

The consensus from Air Cargo Americas was clear: more volatility is on the horizon. With more US–China tariff escalations still at play, USMCA negotiations approaching, and an election year looming, shippers are expanding their supplier bases, diversifying markets, and using airfreight to make their networks more resilient.

For airfreight operators, the lesson from 2025 is clear: agility is now the industry’s defining competitive advantage. In a year when policy signals moved markets faster than fuel prices, being able to react, rather than merely plan, has become a key differentiator.