• Global tonnages fell by three percent in week 41 (6–12 October 2025), largely due to Asia’s extended holiday season.
• Asia Pacific exports dropped by nine percent week-on-week, led by sharp declines from China (-13 percent), Hong Kong (-six percent), Taiwan (-ten percent), and South Korea (-46 percent).
• Despite these disruptions, combined weeks 40–41 tonnages were four percent higher year-on-year.
• China–US spot rates slipped for a second week, down seven percent to US $4.07/kg, now 20 percent lower year-on-year.
• Potential US tariff hikes on Chinese goods could trigger short-term front-loading, though no surge was yet visible in week 41.

Worldwide air cargo tonnages dropped three percent in week 41 (6 to 12 October 2025) compared with the previous week, according to WorldACD Market Data. The decline was mainly driven by China’s Golden Week mid-autumn festival and national holidays in Taiwan and South Korea, following a short-lived rebound after super-typhoon Ragasa the week before.

The latest figures, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions, show tonnages from Asia Pacific origins down nine percent week-on-week. Exports from China and Hong Kong fell by 13 percent and six percent, respectively, during the extended Golden Week period (1–8 October). Taiwan recorded a ten percent drop around its National Day celebrations (9–10 October), while South Korea’s outbound volumes plunged 46 percent, reflecting the overlap of Chuseok (5–8 October) and Hangeul Day (9 October).

Without these seasonal disruptions, WorldACD estimates that global tonnages would have shown a one-percent increase week-on-week. Despite the temporary dip, total worldwide volumes for weeks 40 and 41 combined were four percent higher than last year, even with China’s holiday extended by one extra day.

Trade-lane performance showed Asia Pacific to the United States down 11 percent week-on-week, while Asia Pacific to Europe fell nine percent. From China to the US, chargeable weight dropped 11 percent week-on-week, leaving it six percent lower year-on-year.

On the pricing side, spot rates from China to the US decreased for a second consecutive week by seven percent to US $4.07 per kilo, around 20 percent below the same week last year—when rates had started rebounding after Golden Week. In contrast, Hong Kong-to-US pricing was more stable, down just one percent week-on-week and still two percent above last year’s level, despite 19 percent lower tonnages due to weaker e-commerce flows following the end of de minimis exemptions on low-value US imports.

The looming US import tariffs on Chinese goods, expected to take effect next month, could prompt shippers to front-load cargo ahead of the increases. However, no such surge in demand or pricing was observed in week 41 (6–12 October), when the tariff threat first emerged on 10 October in response to China’s restrictions on rare-earth exports.

Meanwhile, higher US tariffs on goods from India appear to be affecting trade: India-to-US volumes fell four percent week-on-week for a second consecutive week, while exports from India to Europe rose six percent.