As the Trump administration prepares to end the long-standing de minimis exemption for low-value imports, freight forwarders and customs brokers are scrambling to prepare. The move, which will target shipments typically valued under $800, threatens to disrupt supply chains, and delay deliveries across the country.

Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association (AfA), says the industry is grappling with deep uncertainty as the new policy nears implementation: “Unpredictability is the order of the day in terms of the de minimis. Not all of our members are involved with De Minimis activity, but we’ve had several members that have made significant investments in that area. And for them, this is going to be very impactful.”

Traditionally, the de minimis rule allowed these low-value shipments to bypass formal customs clearance and duty payments, enabling fast, low-cost cross-border e-commerce. Its repeal is expected to create a bottleneck of new compliance requirements, forcing many shippers to pivot quickly.

“We’re probably going to see more of an emphasis away from air reight onto ocean, bringing large shipments in and going through the bulk formal clearance process,” Fried explained. “It’s going to require more processing time, more detailed documentation, and obviously the increased costs of formalised entry procedures.”

Brokers under pressure

Freight forwarders who relied on this exemption are not the only ones affected. Customs brokers—who now face a tsunami of low-value shipments needing full clearance—are also feeling the strain.

“They’ve certainly had a busy time,” Fried said. “They’re reeling from the uncertainty and the constant changes. They’re helping importers with various duty classification scenarios…but it’s complicated, and what makes it complicated is the uncertainty around the processes.”

That ambiguity has freight professionals urging clients to hold off on any major investment decisions. “When people come to me and say, ‘What kind of advice can you give me?’ A lot of times, my response is: hold on. Don’t make any rash decisions at this point,” Fried said.

System readiness in question

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) delayed the exemption’s repeal earlier this year to ready their systems. Fried says that while CBP claims its automated infrastructure is now prepared, significant concerns remain.

“They’re going to have to get a better understanding of what’s in the package,” Fried said. “I don’t quite know how CBP will keep up with it, but I can pretty much tell our members that you’re going to be required to provide much more data…and if CBP has an issue understanding what’s in that package and what the value is, that means your shipments will inevitably be delayed.”

The U.S. Postal Service, which handles many de minimis shipments, is also expected to face operational challenges—though their internal readiness remains unclear.

Smaller businesses at risk

Larger multinational firms may have the means to negotiate favourable tariff treatments, but small and medium-sized businesses—core constituents of the AfA—are not so lucky.

“The small, medium-sized businesses are going to be the ones that are not going to survive this,” Fried warned. “The big guys will take care of themselves…but it’s the small to medium-sized business that’s in deep trouble, and that’s a huge concern.”

As such, freight forwarders are working overtime to help these clients reassess their entire supply chain. That includes “supply chain diversification, route optimisation, and evaluating transportation modes”—steps that were not routine in the past but are now essential for survival.

Global diversification hits walls

The administration’s trade strategy has forced companies to rethink sourcing, particularly from China. However, attempts to shift operations to Southeast Asia have been complicated by new tariffs targeting nations like Vietnam and Cambodia.

“Lo and behold, Cambodia, Vietnam got whacked with tariffs as well,” Fried said. “They want American interests out of China…but there are challenges with doing that. China has had 40-plus years to set up a significant and capable manufacturing base.”

Domestic reshoring of manufacturing presents its own hurdles. “Where are you going to find companies that have the money to rebuild factories here in the United States in a tremendously uncertain trade environment?” Fried asked. “And does the American worker really want the jobs that China has been known for? I think not.”

Early warning signs

Already, the effects are being felt. Fried cited data from the Port of Los Angeles showing a 10 percent drop in activity, with officials warning of further declines. UPS is reportedly laying off 20,000 employees and closing 73 facilities, moves Fried links to the broader disruptions in trade and logistics.

“We’re less than a month away from empty store shelves here in the U.S.,” he said. “Those goods aren’t going to be hitting us.”

Much of the frustration, Fried says, stems from a lack of clear, stable direction from the federal government.

“It’s hard to issue guidance when the guidance you’re getting from the White House is not clear and concise,” he said. “Uncertainty is ruling the day, and the likelihood of a change coming from the White House in an hour is always there.”

What comes next?

In the absence of policy clarity, forwarders are focusing on what they can control. Fried urges members to invest in compliance infrastructure, improve data systems, and maintain close contact with customs professionals.

“Technology adoption is critical,” he said. “And above all, stay in constant communication with your clients.”

As the May 2 deadline looms, one message from the freight forwarding community is clear: brace for turbulence—and don’t make any sudden moves.