IATA Director General Willie Walsh has offered a stark message: while global aviation is back on its feet, it’s still walking a financial and structural tightrope.
Walsh didn’t sugarcoat it. He celebrated the industry’s resilience—airlines are projected to pull in US$36 billion in net profits this year, based on record revenues nearing US$979 billion. But dig deeper, and that translates to just US$7.20 profit per passenger per flight, a razor-thin 3.7 percent margin. For an industry that supports 86 million jobs and nearly 4 percent of global GDP, these are not the numbers of a sector in full health.
Holding up the global economy
Airfreight took centre stage in Walsh’s keynote—not because it’s always in the spotlight, but because it rarely is. Though it makes up only 1 percent of trade by volume, it accounts for over 35 percent by value. In 2025, cargo is expected to handle 69 million tonnes, earning US$142 billion in revenue. But that’s a 4.7 percent decline from last year, a worrying trend driven by weaker global demand, trade protectionism, and rising geopolitical tensions.
“Flying makes the world more prosperous,” Walsh said, warning that growing fragmentation of global trade is threatening the dependability airfreight was built on. In other words, the big threats aren’t just fuel prices or airport fees anymore—they’re the political barriers reshaping how (and where) goods move.
Fleet delays and infrastructure gaps
Walsh also pointed to a critical choke point: the global aerospace supply chain. Aircraft backlogs now top 17,000, up from 11,000 before the pandemic. That’s a 14-year wait for delivery in some cases. And it’s not just delays—over 1,100 planes under 10 years old are grounded due to engine issues, especially involving the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G engines.
“The manufacturing sector is failing badly,” Walsh said bluntly. This shortage hits cargo carriers especially hard. Freighter aircraft are already in limited supply, and without access to new planes or reliable engines, airlines are forced to keep ageing fleets flying longer—which increases costs, emissions, and unreliability. All of this plays out most painfully in emerging markets, where demand for cargo services is rising but investment in modern infrastructure isn’t keeping pace.
Faster planes, slower paperwork
Another contradiction Walsh called out? The disconnect between the speed of air travel and the sluggishness of its paperwork. “Aircraft fly faster than their paperwork,” he quipped. IATA is pushing for the global adoption of ONE Record, a digital data-sharing standard that would streamline cargo documentation and customs processing. Set to officially launch in January 2026, ONE Record aims to replace outdated, fragmented systems with real-time, unified logistics data. But Walsh warned: without government buy-in, especially from customs authorities, this innovation could stall—just when e-commerce volumes are surging and cargo logistics need to be more agile than ever.
A growing headwind
Walsh also took aim at what he sees as increasingly counterproductive regulations, especially in Europe. He cited EU261, a passenger protection regulation, as an example of high compliance costs with little evidence of improved service. For cargo carriers, it’s a familiar frustration: disjointed customs rules, arbitrary airport charges, and politically driven trade restrictions that make it harder—and more expensive—to do business.
“Bad regulation can destroy value,” Walsh warned, criticising the Dutch government’s plan to reduce capacity at Schiphol Airport for environmental reasons. He called the move “short-sighted madness.” While he acknowledged the importance of sustainability, he argued that decisions like these ignore the progress airlines have made on noise and emissions—and set dangerous precedents for other countries.
Big talk, slow action
Decarbonisation was, as always, a hot topic. And while there’s been progress—sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is expected to double in 2025 to 2 million tonnes—that still covers less than 1 percent of global demand. The bigger issue? Price. SAF is now more than four times the cost of traditional jet fuel, thanks to what Walsh described as “compliance fees” imposed by some European suppliers.
“This is the EU’s great green scam,” Walsh said, slamming what he sees as a lack of real policy support for greener fuels. He highlighted IATA’s SAF Matchmaker and CADO SAF Registry as tools to scale SAF use across the industry. But for now, cargo operators are at a disadvantage—they often lack access to the sustainability tools and offset programmes available to passenger airlines.
Crossroads moment
Walsh wrapped up with a clear call to action. The aviation industry—particularly airfreight—sits at a strategic crossroads. Margins are tight, fleets are outdated, regulations are inconsistent, and the global political landscape is shifting fast.
“Flying is freedom,” he said. “But that freedom—and the prosperity it enables—depends on our collective willingness to remove barriers, not raise them.”
