The latest round of geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan has introduced critical operational constraints for the air cargo sector across South Asia and beyond. Following a deadly attack in Kashmir that left 26 people dead—a tragedy that India has publicly linked to Pakistan-based actors—Pakistan has responded by closing its airspace to Indian carriers until 23 May 2025. In a tit-for-tat response, India has barred Pakistani aircraft from its own skies. The mutual restrictions have triggered substantial rerouting of commercial air traffic, with direct and disproportionate consequences for air cargo operations connecting India to Europe, North America, and the Middle East.

These developments come at a time when global air cargo networks remain under pressure from shifting trade patterns, volatile fuel markets, and a fragile post-pandemic recovery. The bilateral airspace closure between two nuclear-armed neighbours is not just a political flashpoint—it is a logistical and economic one with systemic implications for carriers, forwarders, and regulatory planners.

Detours, delays, and mounting costs

Indian airlines, including Air India, IndiGo, and SpiceJet, have been compelled to implement extended routings to maintain international schedules—particularly on westbound routes toward Europe and the Gulf. Air India, for instance, has reported an increase of approximately one hour in flight times to destinations such as Dubai and Doha, while Europe-bound flights are facing even longer detours. The implications for cargo are substantial.

Airlines estimate that these diversions are adding as much as US$36.7 million in monthly operational costs, primarily driven by increased fuel burn and crew time, according to data reported by The Financial Express. Fuel remains the single-largest cost component in air cargo operations, and any increase in block times significantly affects payload capacity, aircraft range, and unit economics. This could lead to mounting debt of over US$ 800 million in consolidated losses by the Indian carriers.

IndiGo, which operates a narrowbody-heavy fleet, has announced it is suspending services to cities such as Almaty and Tashkent—indicative of the narrow operating margins in short- and medium-haul air cargo corridors. These route suspensions also curtail bellyhold cargo opportunities, especially in markets like Central Asia, which are otherwise critical for pharmaceuticals and electronics shipments.

For cargo originating in Delhi and Mumbai, the need to bypass Pakistani airspace is resulting in added transit times of up to 90 minutes on average. This not only disrupts just-in-time delivery models for time-sensitive commodities such as perishables, apparel, and medical equipment, but also forces forwarders to reconsider route viability and cost pass-throughs.

Implications

The operational impact extends to payload calculations, especially for freighter and combi aircraft operating at maximum take-off weights. Longer routes necessitate additional fuel carriage, which in turn forces a trade-off with cargo tonnage. This is particularly problematic for Indian carriers whose widebody utilisation is already constrained by fleet renewal delays and limited long-haul slots.

More critically, many of India’s pharma and high-tech exports—destined for Western Europe and the US—require stringent temperature control and limited transit exposure. Rerouted paths risk breaching those parameters unless mitigated through advanced packaging or extended cold chain support, both of which add to logistics costs.

According to recent data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce, India exported over US$4.2 billion in pharmaceutical goods in Q1 2025 alone. Any disruption to the air routes supporting this trade raises not only economic concerns but also reputational risk for exporters, particularly those working under FDA or EU GMP regulatory frameworks.

Wake-up call for contingency planning

The geopolitical impasse between India and Pakistan has reignited conversations around the strategic fragility of regional air corridors. The closure of Pakistani airspace was last experienced in 2019 during the Pulwama-Balakot episode, which saw similar operational disruptions lasting nearly two weeks. However, the cumulative cost this time—given higher fuel prices, labour shortages, and tighter freight capacity globally—is likely to be far greater.

For air cargo policy professionals, this episode underscores the need for diversified route planning, regional connectivity redundancies, and multi-airport cargo aggregation strategies. For example, carriers operating from Eastern India (Kolkata, Bhubaneswar) or Southern India (Chennai, Bengaluru) are somewhat less affected by the closure of western corridors, although that too shifts airspace traffic and air traffic control (ATC) congestion toward Iran, the UAE, and Central Asia—each with their own geopolitical sensitivities.

This fragility presents a compelling case for stronger regional air cargo agreements, perhaps under the auspices of SAARC or BIMSTEC frameworks, and accelerated investment in next-generation flight planning systems capable of real-time geopolitical scenario modelling.

Broader economic reverberations

The air cargo sector represents less than 1 percent of total cargo volume globally but accounts for nearly 35 percent of the value of global trade—underscoring its strategic role in high-value, high-velocity supply chains. Any disruption to this modality has ripple effects across manufacturing, distribution, and retail sectors, especially in economies such as India’s that are pursuing export-led growth.

India’s National Logistics Policy (NLP) aims to reduce the country’s logistics cost from the current 13–14 percent of GDP to under 10 percent by 2030. Air cargo—particularly for value-dense goods—is a cornerstone of that ambition. Episodes like the current airspace dispute set back these efforts, especially when shippers shift volumes to integrators or ocean freight to avoid uncertainty.

The situation also presents an opportunity for integrators such as DHL, FedEx, and UPS to capture market share from capacity-strained commercial carriers, albeit at premium rates. Moreover, with Western buyers increasingly exploring China+1 sourcing strategies, reliability of outbound logistics becomes a key differentiator—and India risks ceding competitiveness if airfreight continuity cannot be guaranteed.

Regulatory situation

From a regulatory standpoint, the closure of Pakistani airspace could trigger review clauses in existing bilateral and multilateral air service agreements, particularly if the restrictions extend beyond May 2025. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) may also be called upon to mediate or issue advisories should the crisis intensify.

Closer home, India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and the Ministry of Civil Aviation may need to issue revised Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) and work with the Indian Air Force (IAF) to deconflict civilian routes. In the medium term, regulatory coordination with neighbouring countries will be critical to creating buffer routes and alternate corridors for strategic cargo missions.

Case study in cargo geopolitics

The closure of Pakistani airspace is not merely a diplomatic standoff—it is a textbook case in the geopolitical exposure of air cargo supply chains. While passenger inconvenience often captures headlines, it is the commercial cargo flows—often unseen—that bear the brunt of such crises.

For stakeholders across air cargo, trade policy, and sustainability domains, the lesson is clear: operational agility, policy foresight, and geopolitical scenario planning must be central to future cargo strategies. As India and Pakistan navigate their diplomatic impasse, the air cargo sector must prepare for a world where access to airspace is no longer a given—but a strategic asset to be defended, diversified, and diplomatically negotiated.