Embraer (NYSE: ERJ/ B3: EMBR3) has published a report on the untapped potential to enhance intra-African air connectivity. The comprehensive study underscores the critical role of improved air travel in driving economic growth and development across the African continent and was unveiled today at the AviaDev conference in Zanzibar.
Despite Africa accounting for 18 percent of the global population, it contributes less than 3 percent to global GDP and only 2.1 percent to global air passenger and cargo traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This disparity is fundamental in the continent’s limited intra-regional air connectivity, a significant bottleneck in Africa’s economic and aviation development.
Africa’s GDP is expected to grow at 3.8% per year over the next 20 years, with Revenue Passenger Kilometer (RPK) growth projected at 4.4 percent per year, surpassing growth rates in Europe and North America. Although Africa has the world’s lowest propensity to travel, its potential for growth is immense. Developing intra-regional connectivity will be a key driver of this growth.
Current Connectivity Challenges:
Currently, 64 percent of intra-African markets are served with seven weekly flights or less, indicating a significant opportunity to enhance connectivity. Many African origin-and-destination (O&D) markets remain underserved or entirely unserved by direct flights, forcing some passengers to connect through distant hubs, sometimes as far away as Europe or the Middle East.
Strategic Opportunities:
Embraer’s report identifies 45 intra-African routes not currently served with a direct flight, that could sustain multiple weekly direct flights, supporting regional economic growth. The top 10 routes could sustain at least three direct flights per week with a 100-seat aircraft.
The report also utilises an intra-Africa stimulation curve developed by Embraer, based on the last 10 years’ traffic data, which estimates expected passenger numbers when opening a direct flight. The data shows that the stimulation factor varies according to the market size. For example, a market with 50 passengers before the opening of a direct flight will see a 40% increase in demand. For a smaller market such as 20 passengers, the opening of a direct flight would result in an 80% increase in demand.
Efficient hub operations and increased frequencies are also crucial for improving connectivity quality, offering passengers more flexibility and convenience.
Aircraft Deployment:
Right-sized aircraft, such as Embraer’s E2, are essential for developing connectivity in fragmented markets. These aircraft offer lower trip costs and increased range, making them ideal for both short and medium-haul routes, and excel at opening and sustaining and growing new routes.
Stephan Hannemann, Senior Vice President Sales & Marketing, Head of Region Middle East and Africa at Embraer Commercial Aviation said, “This report, and the data behind it, highlights the significant potential for new routes and improved hub connectivity across Africa. By deploying the right aircraft and enhancing intra-regional air travel, Africa can unlock new economic opportunities, improve the overall travel experience for millions of passengers, and unlock the continent’s economic potential.”
“AviaDev Africa is dedicated to supporting the development of air connectivity to, from and within Sub-Saharan Africa. Embraer’s new report illustrates the vast opportunities already on offer to deliver better intra-African connectivity and ensure a robust and resilient future” says Jon Howell, CEO and Founder, AviaDev.
