Early 2025 has seen global air cargo markets shaped by shifting trade dynamics, moderate capacity growth, and new regulatory measures, according to DHL Global Forwarding’s latest market update.

Geopolitical shifts

Global airreight demand increased by 2.5 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven in part by rising trade tensions—especially between the United States and China. Anticipated tariffs led many businesses to accelerate shipments, turning to air cargo as a faster alternative to ocean freight.

Asia Pacific remains the main engine of growth, with major contributions from China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Japan. Several key trade lanes saw strong performance, including Europe–Americas (+9%), Asia Pacific–Americas (+3%), and intra–Asia Pacific (+11%).

The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea region and Ukraine continue to influence cargo flows and add operational complexity. Rerouting, increased insurance premiums, and bottlenecks in alternative trade corridors remain part of the logistical landscape for international air cargo.

Capacity growth trails demand

While airfreight demand continues to grow, capacity expansion has not kept pace. The update forecasts a 3–4% increase in available capacity, falling short of the estimated 4–6% rise in demand. This mismatch reflects ongoing operational uncertainty caused by shifting trade policies, continued supply chain disruptions, and volatility in e-commerce volumes.

Carriers and forwarders are navigating these pressures cautiously, as they remain wary of overcommitting amid regulatory and geopolitical unpredictability.

Canada introduces PACT security screening

A key regulatory development in Q1 is the introduction of Canada’s Pre-Load Air Cargo Targeting (PACT) program. Effective from 1 April 2025, the new security framework mandates pre-loading risk assessments for all shipments destined for Canada.

The goal is to identify high-risk cargo before it is loaded onto aircraft, bringing Canada’s air cargo security protocols in line with global best practices. Forwarders operating in the transatlantic and transpacific corridors will need to adjust documentation and screening processes accordingly.