Global air cargo tonnages rebounded slightly (+3%) in week 6 (3 to 9 February) from their Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday dip the previous week, although average rates have dropped further, especially from Asia Pacific, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data.
The charts in the pdf report contain our latest views on air cargo market developments.
Worldwide rates, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, dropped, week on week (WoW), by -5%, to US$2.30 per kilo, taking average prices -3% below their level this time last year, although that comparison figure is distorted by the later timing in 2024 of Lunar New Year. The week 6 drop in pricing is driven primarily by a -11% WoW fall from Asia Pacific origins, based on the more than 500,000 interactions covered by WorldACD’s database. Average worldwide spot rates were down by -3%, WoW, to $2.55 per kilo, with spot prices from Asia Pacific dropping -8% to $3.56 per kilo. But both were +7% higher, YoY.
Meanwhile, demand from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins dipped slightly (-1%), WoW, and on a global basis it dropped -7% below their level in week 6 last year. And spot rates also dipped slightly (-4%), WoW, to $2.99 per kilo, although YoY they remain +39% higher, on average, to destinations globally. To Europe, the picture is somewhat different, with MESA to Europe tonnages now well below (-21%) their level this time last year – although that mostly reflects the surge in volumes on that trade last year due to the disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea. Spot rates from MESA to Europe averaging $2.48 in week 6 are well down on their elevated levels throughout the second half of last year, although they are still up +32% compared with week 6 last year.
China to USA confusion
With LNY falling on 29 January this year, it was no surprise that tonnages from China to the USA dropped steeply in the surrounding days and weeks, falling -20%, WoW, in week 5 and a further -28% in week 6, taking tonnages -41% down, YoY. Hong Kong to USA tonnages also fell sharply, down -22%, WoW, in week 5 and -13% in week 6. It’s difficult to separate how much of that decline was simply linked to the annual holidays and factory closures in China in the weeks before and after LNY, and how much resulted from the Trump administration’s sudden decision to revoke access to Section 321 customs-free ‘de minimis’ import processes for imports from China. The resulting huge customs processing backlogs led swiftly to that presidential order being suspended until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue applicable”, but in the meantime, dozens of e-commerce-loaded freighter flights had been cancelled.
But there were similar WoW declines in tonnages from China to Europe of -30% in week 5 and a further -20% in week 6, with Hong Kong to Europe tonnages holding up little better (-22%, and a further -17%, WoW, respectively). However, spot rates from China to Europe were relatively stable, dipping -2% in week 5 and a further -4% in week 6, to $3.91 per kilo – almost exactly their level in week 6 last year.
Spot rates from China to the USA, meanwhile, dropped by -7%, WoW, in week 5, and a further -3% in week 6, to $3.99 a kilo, taking them -19% lower, YoY, with Hong Kong to USA rates -14% down, YoY.
Air cargo tonnages to the USA from other East Asian countries that celebrate LNY also declined sharply in week 5, WoW, including South Korea (-42%), Taiwan (-60%) and Vietnam (-58%), although volumes rebounded or partially rebounded in week 6, with a +21% WoW recovery in South Korea, +68% rebound in Taiwan, and a +31% partial bounce-back in Vietnam. And spot rates from those markets to the USA, meanwhile, remain significantly above their levels this time last year.
