Canada and Mexico are working more closely than ever to strengthen commercial ties, a move with major implications for airfreight. While there is no formal active “bypass corridor” yet, bilateral trade growth, US tariff volatility, and infrastructural shifts in Mexico are combining to reshape how goods move across North America.

Bilateral Trade Amid US Pressure

Canada–Mexico trade has grown significantly over the past decade, deepening since the implementation of the USMCA agreement. However, recent tariff escalations from Washington have pushed both countries to explore new ways to reduce reliance on US infrastructure and customs bottlenecks.

In July 2025, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that her administration would expand cooperation with Canada to shore up supply chains and reduce vulnerability to US tariff shocks. This move came weeks after Donald Trump signalled sweeping tariffs on imports from both countries. (Reuters)

For Mexico, Canada is more than just a northern partner; it is a buffer against US dependence. For Canada, diversifying trade with Mexico offers an outlet for exports ranging from agricultural goods to manufactured products, without the unpredictability of US trade policy.

Mexico’s Airport Shake-Up

Air cargo’s role in North American trade is shifting as Mexico has restructured its aviation landscape. In 2023, the government ordered all cargo airlines to move operations out of Mexico City International Airport (AICM) to the new Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA), a military-run facility. Initially criticised for its distance and limited capacity, AIFA has since undergone rapid expansion, adding storage space, platforms, and a taxiway at a cost of nearly US$163 million. These investments have now made it Mexico’s busiest cargo hub. (Reuters)

Mexico has also revived its historic flag carrier under government ownership. The new Mexicana Airlines is set to operate a fleet of 20 Embraer E2 aircraft, with cargo service among its top priorities. The airline will be based at AIFA and is expected to expand international connectivity across Latin America and the Caribbean, supporting increased nearshoring demand and e-commerce growth. (Reuters)

Airfreight Implications Modal Competition

Bonded rail shipments and expanded seaports could divert some bulk and lower-value goods away from airfreight. For commodities such as auto parts, plastics, or industrial inputs, rail could provide a cheaper, predictable option.

Air Cargo’s Resilient Niche

Despite these developments, airfreight remains irreplaceable for time-sensitive and high-value shipments. Pharmaceuticals, aerospace parts, and perishables will continue to rely on belly and freighter capacity. Mexico’s AIFA expansion and Mexicana’s cargo launch showcase how governments and carriers see air freight as a pillar of resilience, even in a multimodal future.

Multimodal Integration

The real opportunity lies in integration. As rail corridors expand and airports like AIFA modernise, shippers will increasingly demand seamless transfers between modes. Cross-docking, customs digitisation, and joint rail–air hubs could determine how competitive North American logistics remain on the global stage.

The Bigger Picture

Even if a full Canada–Mexico “bypass corridor” never materialises, the momentum is evident. Canada and Mexico are aligning more closely, investing in infrastructure, and responding to the uncertainty of US trade policy. For air cargo stakeholders, this translates into both challenges and opportunities: competition from rail for certain types of cargo, but also new infrastructure and carrier investment in air capacity.

So what is the long-term takeaway? Air cargo will not lose relevance; it will evolve towards premium niches while playing a central role in a diversified, multimodal North American supply chain.

The US Factor: Risks and Shared Interests

A trade corridor bypassing US infrastructure would pose serious risks to American businesses, potentially diverting revenue away from freight, customs, and logistics services, as well as narrowing the US’s role in North American supply chains.

For instance, analysts estimate that a blanket 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico could reduce US GDP by US$45–75 billion over the medium term and lead to the loss of more than 177,000 jobs, and that is without even considering retaliatory actions. (Brookings)

These numbers show how disruptions in North American trade — through either infrastructure bypasses or policy shifts — could weaken economic activity. The US risks losing out if trade flows shift southwards without its participation.

Yet North America’s resilience does not lie in exclusionary measures. Instead, collaboration across the US, Canada, and Mexico — through shared infrastructure investments, harmonised customs systems, and joint policy frameworks — is the less turbulent path to mutual benefit and supply chain security.