Worldwide air cargo tonnages rebounded substantially last week with a +6 percent week-on-week (WoW) increase, thanks largely to a strong recovery from Asia Pacific origins linked to tariff policy reversals in the US and volumes returning following holidays in Japan and South Korea.
According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, two-thirds of the +6 percent WoW global tonnage revival in week 20 (12 to 18 May) was generated by WoW increases in flown chargeable weight from China and Hong Kong (+8 percent), and from Japan (+60 percent) and South Korea (+21 percent) – which were recovering, respectively, from Japan’s Golden Week holiday (29 April to 6 May) and from ‘Children’s Day’ (5 May) in South Korea. Those rises contributed to a +11 percent WoW overall tonnage increase from Asia Pacific origins in week 20. But there were also strong WoW increases from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins (+11 percent) and from Europe (+6 percent).
US–China tariff changes
The ending on 2 May of ‘de minimis’ import tariff and reporting exemptions for low-value goods from China and Hong Kong to the US, in addition to steep rises in US tariffs on all China-origin goods, led to a slump in traffic and dozens of weekly transpacific freighter services being cancelled or suspended in late April or shifted to other markets such as the transatlantic. Conversely, the subsequent recent de-escalation of the trade war between the US and China and the interim agreement on 12 May between the US and China – which included cancelling some tariffs altogether, suspending others for 90 days, and a partial softening of the de minimis changes – appears to have stimulated a strong rebound in traffic from China and Hong Kong to the US, which rose +19 percent WoW in week 20. That followed two weeks of significant WoW declines and takes tonnages from China and Hong Kong to the US back up close to their level in early April – and in late February, prior to volumes surging in March ahead of higher tariffs from April.
Meanwhile, spot rates on that market have stabilised in the last two weeks at around US$4 per kilo, after spiking in the second half of April, especially from Hong Kong.
In comparison, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe have also strengthened in the last three weeks, including a +9 percent WoW increase from China in week 20 – taking combined volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe back up close to their highest levels this year, and close to their peak-season levels in November and December. On the pricing side, spot rates in week 20 from China to Europe edged down -5 percent WoW to US$3.71 per kilo, their fourth fall in five weeks, while Hong Kong to Europe spot rates recovered slightly (+2 percent WoW) to US$4.39 per kilo – their second-lowest weekly average level this year, and well below their average of close to US$5 in 2025.
Decline in flower shipments
The worldwide increase in tonnages was partially offset by WoW falls in demand from Central & South America (CSA, -4 percent) linked to lower levels of flower shipments following Mother’s Day on 11 May in the US and various other countries, along with small WoW declines from North America (-2 percent) and Africa (-1 percent) origins.
Comparing the last two full weeks with the previous two (a two-week on two-week comparison, or 2Wo2W), reveals a -23 percent 2Wo2W drop in tonnages from CSA origins in weeks 19 and 20 combined, although those CSA volumes are +3 percent higher year on year (YoY). Indeed, tonnages from most of the origin regions were higher in weeks 19 and 20 combined than the equivalent weeks last year, with the exception of MESA (-2 percent YoY) and North America origins (0 percent).
On the pricing side, worldwide average rates of US$2.33 per kilo edged up slightly higher (+2 percent) in week 20 compared with the previous week, thanks largely to a +2 percent WoW increase from Asia Pacific origins, although both were down by -4 percent compared with week 20 last year. And the pattern for spot rates was similar, with average worldwide spot rates of US$2.50 rising +2 percent WoW, but -3 percent below last year’s levels.
Although prices are now slightly lower YoY from most origin regions, the biggest YoY change is for MESA origins, where spot rates and overall average rates are down by -23 percent and -15 percent, respectively, compared with their inflated levels this time last year.
