The Airport Council International (ACI) has released its 2024 review of operating conditions in 2023 in the air cargo sector. It revealed that after a strong performance in 2021, the air cargo sector encountered multiple economic and geopolitical challenges in 2022. Factors such as inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s zero COVID-19 policy and ongoing supply chain disruptions collectively decreased demand. 
Many of these challenges persisted into 2023. Alongside a general rise in trade-restrictive measures, global cargo, measured in metric tonnes, declined 1.8% year over year in 2023.
The year began with air cargo traffic at its lowest point since the first quarter of 2020. The air cargo industry faced a significant stress test in 2023 as plummeting market demand and rates decreased revenues. This downturn forced many all-cargo carriers to scale back operations, postpone aircraft investments and tighten budgets. This course correction began in early 2022, following the record highs of 2021 when businesses turned to air cargo to navigate disrupted supply chains during the pandemic.
Stabilisation did not occur until the third quarter of 2023. During this period, air cargo lost priority for retailers who had overstocked inventory. Additionally, the reintroduction of more passenger flights saturated the market with increased belly capacity. However, a late resurgence in volumes offered hope for a better 2024.
The industry entered 2023 on the heels of high-single and double-digit declines in monthly cargo volumes, but the gap gradually improved until hitting bottom in August. Since then, air cargo volumes have increased as the peak season proved better than expected, largely due to a surge in e-commerce orders for fast fashion and electronics produced in China. Uncertainty lingers over whether the recent peak season surge in air cargo is merely a temporary boost.
Most analysts predicted that true recovery from the extended downturn would not start until the latter half of 2024, due to inconsistent economic conditions. However, geopolitical developments remained an unpredictable factor that could either drive or hinder growth in the upcoming year. The recent rerouting of container vessels around Africa to evade missile and drone threats might offer a significant opportunity for airlines and freighter operators. Businesses looking to avoid delivery delays might increasingly turn to air transport, potentially bolstering the industry’s recovery efforts.
Examining regional trends reveals that Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East have all experienced growth in air cargo traffic. However, the ongoing Ukraine crisis has led to airspace restrictions in multiple countries, resulting in significant delays for routes between Europe-Asia and Asia-North America. This disruption has contributed to a 3.7% decline in overall cargo traffic. North American cargo traffic has also been negatively affected, showing a decline of 7.4%.
Air cargo’s recovery
The health crisis had a profound effect on air cargo volumes, setting them on an unprecedented trajectory. From the outset, it became clear that air cargo would be an indispensable lifeline. The sector quickly proved essential not only for the rapid transport of medical supplies and equipment but also for the delivery of critical resources such as food, essential goods and everyday necessities. The surge in online retail and e-commerce during the crisis further amplified the demand for air cargo, underscoring its important role during this period. 
Given the diverse geographical, economic and infrastructural contexts of different countries, the significance of air cargo operations varied widely. This variance was particularly noticeable in smaller airports.
During the first half of 2024, airports handling fewer than 1 million passengers annually (<1 mppa) witnessed remarkable growth in air cargo volumes, reaching 137.3% of their 2019 levels. In stark contrast, larger airports within the 15–25 mppa category experienced a nearly 20% decline in total global air cargo volumes compared with the same period in 2019.
