• Canadian air cargo operators are shifting focus from capacity to service reliability, with shippers in pharmaceuticals, perishables, and aerospace prioritising timing certainty, secure handling, and predictable escalation channels.
• Effective operational communication and coordination—both digitally and on the ground—are now key differentiators, ensuring responsiveness for regulated or time-critical shipments across transatlantic and North American lanes.
• Competitive pressure is expected to grow through 2025, with success hinging on carriers’ ability to flex networks, maintain ground-side responsiveness, and provide reliable escalation paths amid stable capacity and evolving geopolitical or regulatory challenges.

Air cargo operators are placing greater emphasis on reliability and communication as global volumes level off and competition shifts from capacity to service performance. After several years of volatility, shippers in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, perishables, and aerospace are prioritising timing certainty and secure handling. These flows represent a large share of Canadian exports moved by airfreight and often require tight coordination at both origin and destination.

Network reliability and escalation

Canada’s position between transatlantic and North American trade lanes gives domestic carriers a network advantage, but that advantage is meaningful only when operational communication functions effectively. Mike Robbins, district manager at Expeditors, said service performance depends on alignment beyond pricing. “We’re aligned at all the key levels, top to top and through account management,” he said, noting that support from Air Canada’s team has helped provide the shipment visibility customers expect.

At Kuehne+Nagel, which manages a high proportion of temperature-controlled and aerospace cargo, clear escalation channels are seen as central to responsiveness. “If we have an issue, we can reach out and they’re always quick to respond,” said Peter Mueller, head of airfreight in Canada, pointing to a recent urgent aerospace shipment that required early retrieval.

Such cases are increasingly routine, as shippers expect carriers to adjust processes for regulated or time-critical cargo. The ability to provide predictable escalation is now viewed as a differentiator amid more stable market capacity.

Outlook

Capacity across transatlantic and North American lanes remains stable, and carriers have less opportunity to rely on rate-driven retention. Analysts expect competitive pressure to increase through 2025 as fleet deliveries, particularly of converted widebody freighters, expand available lift.

Digital coordination is likely to be a determining factor, particularly for pharmaceuticals, aerospace components, and other regulated shipments that require compliant chain-of-custody tracking. If visibility tools and standardised data exchange remain inconsistent between stations, forwarders warn that bottlenecks will shift from aircraft hold space to ground-handling decision times.

The next volatility driver is expected to be geopolitical and regulatory rather than demand-led. Changes to tariff structures and cross-border screening rules could alter lane economics with limited warning, placing greater importance on carriers able to reroute freight through secondary gateways. Canada’s position as a transshipment platform gives it structural advantages, but only if carriers can flex networks quickly and maintain ground-side responsiveness.

The central test for carriers over the next year is sustaining reactivity as demand remains uneven and customer expectations shift. Pricing pressure has eased compared with the peak-pandemic period, but shippers are more selective and expect guaranteed escalation paths for time-critical cargo.

“These situations aren’t one-offs. Our customers demand flexibility and out-of-the-box solutions regularly,” Mueller noted, adding that carriers unable to respond quickly risk losing specialised accounts.

“You’re going to get reliability, but you still need the right touch points. It’s a big company, so you need the communication structure in place,” Robbins said, suggesting that forwarders will migrate volumes toward carriers that maintain clear operational contact lines.