• Global airfreight in the Americas is facing turbulence due to tariffs, shifting sourcing strategies, and unpredictable policy changes, causing longer lead times, tighter capacity, and infrastructure strain on new trade lanes
• Importers are proactively redesigning supply chains away from heavily tariffed nations like China, exploring alternatives such as Vietnam and India, but facing challenges including origin rules, production quality, transit times, and limited direct flight options
• Airfreight operators and logistics providers are focusing on optimising freight routing, customs planning, and cost forecasting while long-term trends point to diversification of sourcing as a permanent strategy to build resilience and mitigate the risks of concentrated supply chains

Global airfreight is facing a turbulent stretch, and the Americas are feeling it most acutely. Tariff battles, shifting sourcing strategies, and unpredictable policy changes have scrambled established trade patterns, sending cargo flows on unfamiliar routes and timelines. What once moved with relative predictability from Asian manufacturing hubs to U.S. gateways now arrives in surges, stalls, and detours, leaving forwarders and shippers constantly recalibrating.

Across the region, the effects reach well beyond freight rates. Lead times are stretching, capacity is tightening in unexpected corridors, and infrastructure in newer trade lanes is showing signs of strain. For importers, the challenge is no longer just finding the cheapest or fastest route — it’s navigating a landscape where the rules can change overnight.

From Reaction to Proactive Redesign

When the U.S. first implemented sweeping tariffs in 2016, Nicholas Ovanessian, account executive at OEC Group’s New York office, recalls that most importers were caught off guard. “At first, importers were reactive,” he says. “Some increased pricing, others tried to mitigate costs in other areas of their business.”

Fast forward to 2025, and the mood is markedly different. “We are seeing an overwhelming theme of importers proactively redesigning their supply chains away from heavily tariffed nations, like China,” Ovanessian explains. “Any importer that has the ability to source from a nation less tariffed, would and will do so.”

The industries hit hardest are those at the extremes. For low-margin sectors such as commodities and raw materials, tariffs can instantly wipe out profitability, making operations unsustainable. At the other end, importers of high-value goods face record payments to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). “C-suites are reassessing strategies simply due to the sheer size of their tariff costs,” Ovanessian notes.

Beyond escaping tariffs, Ovanessian stresses the importance of considering production quality and transportation costs when sourcing elsewhere. Countries like India, while strong in manufacturing capability, present logistical challenges. “The ease of getting goods out and to the U.S. is well below the ease of shipping out of China,” he says, citing long and variable transit times from inland regions.

The Southeast Asia Shift – And Its Pitfalls

Vietnam has emerged as the leading alternative to China, with other Southeast Asian countries also attracting interest. But Ovanessian warns that shifting production is not a simple fix. “One major risk in moving to China’s neighbouring countries is whether the raw materials still originate from China — and how CBP will rule on this,” he says.

Some companies have been caught out by the complexity of origin rules, where even if assembly occurs in a new country, the use of Chinese materials can trigger tariff liabilities. “There’s an added spotlight on any scenario where importers may appear to be circumventing tariffs,” Ovanessian explains, “making the process far more complex.”

The rush to restructure supply chains can also lead to poor decisions. Production quality, transit time, and logistics costs remain major stumbling blocks. In the airfreight market, these factors are magnified — as moving production to less developed export hubs often means limited direct flight options, heavier reliance on transhipment, and potential capacity shortages.

Shifting volumes have already caused bottlenecks in unexpected places. “Ports like those in Vietnam and India are facing equipment shortages, limited yard space, and longer turnaround times,” Ovanessian says. Transshipment hubs in Singapore, Port Klang, and Colombo are under pressure, while U.S. Gulf and East Coast ports have seen surges as importers bypass the West Coast.

Volatility, Congestion, and Strategic Responses

The current tariff pause has introduced its own market distortions. “We’ve seen spikes in imports ahead of the tariff pause expiration, as importers raced to clear goods before the deadline,” Ovanessian says. When it became clear that ocean freight could no longer beat the pause, volumes tapered — only to be poised for another acceleration now that the pause has been extended.

For airfreight operators in the Americas, this creates a stop-start demand pattern that is difficult to plan around. “We expect importers to accelerate shipments to bring in inventory, creating the potential for congestion and driving freight rates higher as carriers capitalise on the renewed demand,” he says.

OEC Group is advising clients to focus on optimising both freight routing and customs planning. “We present all viable routing and modal options,” Ovanessian explains. “Our customs brokerage team works closely with importers to provide clarity on current tariff rates and deliver accurate cost forecasts prior to shipment.”

Such planning is essential, he adds, because tariff-driven sourcing changes have a direct impact on shipping lead times, freight capacity, and reliability. In the short term, diversification has strained infrastructure in newer trade routes, but Ovanessian believes it will eventually strengthen resilience.

Long-Term Outlook: Diversification as the New Foundation

For consumers, the impact of tariffs depends on how importers choose to manage costs. “It’s easy to say prices will go up because companies will increase their pricing in direct correlation with new duty rates,” Ovanessian says. “But for those who offset this difference, they will be highly competitive and successful.”

Looking ahead, Ovanessian foresees a slow return to stability — but not soon. “Until tariff rates are finalised, a true ‘new normal’ cannot take shape,” he says. In the meantime, manufacturing in other countries will continue to develop, decentralising sourcing and easing congestion over time.

One permanent change, he believes, will be a sustained caution against overreliance on a single source or geography for critical goods. “Companies have seen firsthand the vulnerabilities that come with concentrated sourcing, and diversification will remain a priority even if tariffs are lifted or reduced,” Ovanessian says.