• Entering 2026, airfreight capacity across the Americas is shifting from reactive expansion to disciplined calibration, with airlines prioritising predictability, yield protection, and tighter alignment of lift with proven demand.
• North–south trade lanes remain strong, but carriers are rebalancing networks through selective frequency, greater use of belly capacity, and more strategic, seasonal wet-lease arrangements rather than broad, permanent capacity additions.
• For forwarders and shippers, success in 2026 hinges on early planning and committed volumes, as airlines increasingly favour contracted, premium traffic and manage capacity more deliberately across core and secondary routes.

As 2026 gets underway, one thing is already clear: airfreight capacity across the Americas has entered a more deliberate phase. The volatility of 2025 forced airlines to prioritise flexibility at almost any cost. This year, the emphasis has shifted toward control, predictability, network fit, and a more disciplined capacity environment.

December’s fleet and network decisions, freighter conversions, wet-lease renewals and belly-capacity assumptions, now define how much lift actually reaches the market. For carriers operating north–south trade lanes, 2026 projects to be about expansion and more about calibration.

Precision replaces blanket capacity

Across the US, Canada and Latin America, airlines are entering 2026 with fewer open-ended bets. Rather than adding aircraft broadly, carriers are matching lift more tightly to proven demand.

That shift mirrors a broader moderation in global air-cargo growth, with data showing that supply expansion began to outpace demand early in 2025, prompting many planners to emphasise yield protection and network optimisation over broad expansion. 

Longer-term fleet strategy backs this approach. Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast highlights optimisation of existing fleets,  including extending the service life of converted freighters, as a key response during periods of uneven demand, rather than accelerating new-build deliveries. 

In parallel, belly capacity has regained strategic importance as passenger schedules stabilise, particularly between North America and key Latin American hubs. The result is a more segmented capacity landscape: dependable uplift on core lanes, paired with reduced frequency or consolidated schedules elsewhere.

North–south trade lanes, re-weighted

The strength of north–south trade remains intact, but 2026 planning reflects lessons learned the hard way. Political risk, currency pressure and episodic disruption last year exposed the cost of over-concentration across key corridors.

US–Mexico routes continue to attract consistent capacity commitment, supported by structurally resilient manufacturing and trade flows. At the same time, economic uncertainty across parts of Latin America has driven more selective network planning, a trend outlined in the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere. 

In practice, this has translated into adjustments across South America, with some markets seeing frequency consolidation in favour of fuller aircraft and tighter scheduling, particularly for perishables and pharmaceutical cargo, as carriers prioritise reliability over maximum frequency.

Wet-leasing grows up

Wet-lease arrangements across the Americas are evolving beyond the emergency deployments that dominated the early part of the decade. Industry analysis suggests a shift toward more structured ACMI agreements, increasingly defined by seasonal triggers rather than permanent, year-round commitments.

FlightGlobal has reported that airlines are rebalancing their use of wet-leased capacity, seeking flexibility without locking in long-term cost exposure as demand normalises. 

This approach allows carriers to retain access to surge capacity during defined peaks, such as agricultural export seasons or holiday-driven e-commerce flows, while protecting margins during softer demand periods. Industry analysis of ACMI/wet-leasing markets shows airlines increasingly use these arrangements as strategic capacity tools, enabling them to adjust operational lift quickly without the financial commitment of new aircraft purchases and to buffer against short-term disruptions or demand fluctuation. 

What 2026 means for forwarders and shippers

For forwarders, 2026 rewards planning discipline. Capacity, though available, is no longer assumed. Airlines are increasingly prioritising contracted volumes, proven lanes and customers willing to commit early, tightening booking windows for purely spot-driven demand.

Shippers are encountering a clearer segmentation of products. Time-definite and temperature-controlled services are being set aside more deliberately, while general cargo faces tighter access during regional peaks. Market reporting shows air cargo capacity tightening across major global trade lanes as demand pressures mount and carriers prioritise contracted and premium traffic, reinforcing the need for forwarders and shippers to plan earlier and secure space ahead of peak windows. 

At the same time, opportunity remains. Secondary gateways, alternative routings and hybrid belly–freighter solutions have become more viable as carriers optimise networks rather than chase scale.

A steadier year by design

If 2025 was defined by reaction, 2026 is defined by intent. Across the US, Canada and Latin America, carriers are entering the year with a clearer sense of where capacity belongs, and where it doesn’t.

For the broader air-cargo ecosystem, the implication is straightforward: success in 2026 will depend less on finding capacity and more on understanding how it’s rationed. Those who adapt early will be better positioned than those still planning for a market that has already moved on.