Global airfreight tonnage retreated for a second consecutive week in week 32, slipping 2 percent from the previous week, which had been 1 percent below the chargeable weight of week 30, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Only Africa (up 3 percent) and Central & South America (up 1 percent) showed growth, whereas volume contracted out of North America (down 5 percent), Middle East & South Asia (down 4 percent) and Europe (down 3 percent). Tonnage from Asia Pacific was unchanged. Apart from a 1 percent gain in week 30, global airfreight volume has retreated in three of the past four weeks in low increments.
The decline in week 32 marks a deterioration on a comparison of the last two weeks with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), which shows a small decrease of 1 percent. When comparing week 32 with the same period last year (YoY), chargeable weight was up from all regions, with the exception of Europe and Africa (both remained stable), led by Asia Pacific (up 7 percent) and Central & South America (CSA, up 6 percent).
On a 2Wo2W basis, traffic from Asia Pacific was flat intra-region and retreated to North America (down 2 percent), Middle East & South Asia (down 3 percent) and Europe (down 5 percent). Origin region Middle East & South Asia (MESA) saw flat traffic to Europe and a 9 percent drop to Asia Pacific. Chargeable weight out of North America was flat to CSA, slipped 2 percent to Europe and saw a steep decline to Asia Pacific of 11 percent.
As global capacity was largely unchanged week on week (WoW), global pricing rose 1 percent. This was driven by higher rates out of Europe (up 3 percent) and Asia Pacific (up 1 percent). YoY pricing was down 1 percent overall, falling in all origins except Africa (up 9 percent) and Europe (up 7 percent). While rates from Asia Pacific, CSA and North America are down in low single-digit percentages, they are 14 percent lower out of MESA, reflecting some normalisation from the soaring rates seen a year earlier due to the Red Sea crisis.
With the exception of a 7 percent jump in pricing from CSA to Europe and a 4 percent contraction in rates MESA to Europe, rate fluctuations between regions in 2Wo2W have played out in a narrow band in line with the slow season.
Asia Pacific export dynamics shift slightly from Europe to US
Export tonnage from Asia Pacific to Europe and North America hints at divergent trends, with chargeable weight in the former sector slipping 1 percent, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Although westbound tonnage from Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan rose, it sank 3 percent out of China and fell in double digits from South Korea (down 10 percent) and Indonesia (down 18 percent). Tonnage out of China to Europe has fallen for the past four weeks. Still, YoY volume from Asia Pacific to Europe was up 7 percent, mainly driven by gains of 29 percent from Vietnam, 21 percent from Hong Kong and 8 percent from China.
In contrast to the recent slowdown in Europe-bound tonnage, chargeable weight from China to the USA grew 1 percent WoW, following flat growth in week 31 and a 5 percent increase in week 30. After being under last year’s volumes since mid-April, this is the first week now showing a YoY growth of 5 percent. The opposing developments on sectors to Europe and North America suggest a potential rebalancing of Chinese airfreight exports and a re-engagement with the USA as more tariffs are finalised.
Nevertheless, spot rates from China to the USA are still 11 percent lower than a year ago, despite a 5 percent rise WoW. Pricing from Asia Pacific to the USA rose 2 percent WoW but remains 14 percent down year on year, reflecting stark contrasts between trade lanes. Rates from Taiwan to the USA jumped 9 percent WoW but dropped 5 percent out of South Korea and 2 percent each from Japan, Vietnam and Singapore. South Korea’s 5 percent drop in pricing followed a slump of 10 percent the previous week, which erased previous YoY gains. Taiwan is the only market in the region to show higher rates (up 9 percent) to the USA on a year-on-year basis. Declines range from 8 percent in prices out of Thailand to 29 percent out of Vietnam.
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe showed less turbulence, being stable versus last week and down 3 percent YoY. Week-on-week declines out of China (3 percent), Hong Kong and Singapore (2 percent each), South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand (all 1 percent) were compensated by increases from Vietnam (4 percent), Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia (all 3 percent). Pricing from Asia Pacific to Europe has shown little change WoW since a 5 percent drop at the beginning of May. Rates have been down compared to the previous year for the most part since the second week of June. In week 32, Thailand (2 percent) and Japan (1 percent) are the only Asia Pacific origin markets showing higher rates to Europe on a YoY basis.
