Global airfreight rates dipped slightly last week, reflecting the seasonal slowdown in demand and muted market sentiment. According to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency for the airfreight sector, the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) edged down 0.3 percent in the week to 21 July, leaving it 0.8 percent lower than the same period a year ago.
With the market now deep into its quietest time of the year, most observers expect minimal price movement in the short term—despite lingering concerns about a potential re-escalation in this year’s tariff tensions.
Modest Declines on Key China Export Routes
Rates on the busiest export lanes out of China softened slightly, both to the United States and Europe. The new BAI Spot indices from Hong Kong to both destinations—currently in public trial—also edged lower. The broader BAI30 index for outbound Hong Kong, which reflects a combination of spot and contract rates, dropped 0.6 percent week-on-week (WoW) and is now down 6.1 percent year-on-year (YoY).
The index for outbound Shanghai (BAI80) showed a steeper 3.8 percent WoW decline, mirroring an identical 3.8 percent YoY drop.
Elsewhere in Asia, the picture was mixed. Rates from Vietnam were slightly up WoW on routes to the US but lower to Europe—remaining significantly down YoY across both corridors. India’s rates continued their decline, falling further WoW and staying well below 2024 levels.
In contrast, rates from Bangkok and Seoul to Europe rose again, and both remain comfortably ahead on a YoY basis, reflecting stronger demand and possibly tighter capacity on certain lanes.
European Export Hubs See Strong Gains
European outbound routes showed some of the strongest weekly growth. The BAI20 index for outbound Frankfurt rose 5.9 percent WoW, driven by rising rates to China and North America, bringing its YoY gain to 10.5 percent.
Outbound London (BAI40) continued its recent upward momentum, buoyed by a sharp rise in rates to Southeast Asia. The index gained 8.1 percent WoW, pushing its YoY increase to an impressive 44.1 percent—the highest level recorded for London in two years.
Newly added lanes from Europe to destinations such as India and South Africa also saw rate increases, though prices to Mexico, Brazil, and Australia remained flat or declined slightly.
US Market Mixed, With Diverging Trends
Out of the US, airfreight rates rose again on routes to Europe, continuing an upward trend, and posted gains YoY on routes to China. However, South American lanes—especially from Miami—did not see the same lift, despite some further gains.
The BAI50 index for outbound Chicago slipped by 2.7 percent WoW, bringing it 10.2 percent lower YoY, reflecting softer demand on some midwestern export routes.
Outlook: Calm for Now, But Risks Linger
Despite fluctuations across individual markets, the overall global airfreight pricing picture remains stable, with rates only slightly lower year-on-year. The traditional summer slowdown is in full effect, and most industry insiders do not expect major pricing shifts in the near term.
However, uncertainty remains. Trade friction and tariff disputes could yet disrupt flows later in the year, and potential capacity constraints—particularly in the bellyhold segment—could shift dynamics heading into the peak season.
