Market research projects that the global e-commerce market will exceed US$8.09 million by 2027 and will grow by 7.2 percent, on average per year. The global cross-border e-commerce logistics market was valued at US$97.85 billion in 2023, and the cross-border e-commerce market is expected to deliver an explosive growth rate of 25.4 percent from 2024 to 2030, greatly accelerating that of domestic e-commerce.
This skyrocketing growth has further fueled the call for quick, dependable international shipping and helped cement air cargo as an essential catalyst of the global supply chain. The move toward same-day and next-day delivery has transformed logistics thinking. There is a voracious demand for speedy shipping, with 80 percent of shoppers wanting same-day shipping, and a staggering 61 percent of shoppers wanting their packages to land on their doorstep within one to three hours of making an order.
This is precisely why Amazon has signalled its plans to drastically expand its air fleet, with the goal of operating over 100 aircraft by 2025 and possibly expanding that number to 200 or more in the coming years. For example, Alibaba’s Cainiao network controls its dedicated freighters and offers cross-border delivery times reduced from seven to ten days to less than one to five days. Global air cargo demand soared 11.3 percent in 2024 alone to surpass the previous record highs of 2021, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA) data.
The response from the airlines has been aggressive, with both passenger-to-freighter conversions (P2F conversions) of older passenger aircraft and growth into freighter as well as maximising belly cargo capacity in passenger flights. But airport crowding and bottlenecks are still making flights more expensive and schedules unsteady. Skytrax has released data showing an increase of 11.3 percent in global air cargo demand for the year 2024, surpassing 2021 peak record levels.
Technology is transforming the sector—everything from AI-powered demand forecasting to automated warehouses and robotics is improving efficiency, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is being used to reduce emissions. Nonetheless, customs compliance and de minimis threshold changes are regulatory hurdles and complexities that need to be overcome when shipping across borders. Leading cargo carriers also set ambitious goals to replace 10 percent of conventional jet fuel with SAF by 2030. Air cargo demand will keep boosting air cargo when high-value, timesensitive shipments remain to be delivered. E-commerce is driving growth, with the global air cargo market expected to reach between US$216.29 billion and US$230.37 billion by 2032.
E-commerce will make up a dent in air cargo volumes. At the same time, drone deliveries and urban air mobility (UAM) may revolutionise last-mile logistics, with the autonomous cargo aircraft market anticipated to register a CAGR of 18.2 percent. As e-commerce continues to disrupt traditional retail, airfreight is becoming an increasingly prominent part of the supply chain, where speed and reliability are paramount.
